$150K BTC or Bear Market Ahead?

Looking to 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) forecasts clash with historical chart patterns and evolving market realities, as traditional finance plays a bigger role in the cryptocurrency space.

Key takeaways:

• Standard Chartered and Bernstein forecast Bitcoin to hit $150,000 in 2026, revising down earlier higher targets due to slower ETF inflows. 

• Grayscale predicts a new BTC all-time high in H1/2026, driven by institutional adoption ending the traditional four-year cycle.

• Technical point to a potentially deep drawdown to $40,000-$70,000 if historical patterns repeat.

Expert outlooks for Bitcoin price going into 2026

The post-2024 halving cycle brought significant gains earlier in the year; however, late-2025 consolidation and volatility have led to a pullback amid macroeconomic uncertainty and fluctuations in ETF flows.

The 47% drawdown from $126,000 all-time highs in October saw Bitcoin price drop to $80,500 in November. 

Analysts are largely bullish for 2026, though their predictions are tempered compared to earlier euphoria. 

Standard Chartered has cut its 2026 Bitcoin target from $300,000 to $150,000 ​​after spending 2024 and early 2025 calling for moonshots, citing slower institutional buying through ETFs.

Related: Coinbase ‘cautiously optimistic’ on 2026 as crypto nears institutional inflection point

Bernstein analysts also expect Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of 2026, with an anticipated price of $200,000 by the end of 2027.

Although the recent downturn prompted them to retract their earlier forecast of a $200,000 peak this year, they maintain the view that Bitcoin has moved beyond its historical four-year cyclical pattern, suggesting a more durable growth trajectory. 

Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor predicts $150,000 for Bitcoin going into 2026, arguing that the cryptocurrency has been “getting a lot less” volatile despite the recent price correction, contradicting the outlook of many crypto analysts.

More optimistic views, such as from Fundstrat, see potential for $200,000–$250,000, while conservative estimates hover near $110,000–$135,000. 

Polymarket predicts a 41% chance of BTC rising above $130,000 and a 25% chance of it reaching $150,000 before the end of 2026.

There’s a 79% chance of Bitcoin’s price reclaiming $100,000 and an 80% possibility of it falling to $75,000 in 2026, based on the current odds. 

Overall, consensus leans toward the upside, sustained by structural changes rather than traditional boom-bust cycles.

BTC price technicals clash with bullish forecasts

Past halving patterns suggest that BTC price peaks 12–18 months thereafter, as reduced issuance takes effect — and this is starting to be reflected in the charts.

Analyst and trader Rekt Capital suggested that the current cycle was over 93% complete, with the possibility of the market topping out in Q4/2025.

Other technical indicators also reflect bear market conditions, suggesting that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains intact and that BTC could extend its downtrend into 2026.

Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows that the SuperTrend indicator flashed a bearish signal, with its “sell” signal confirmed by BTC’s drop below the 50-week moving averages (MAs) (see chart below), a scenario that has historically marked the end of bull markets. 

These were further reinforced by a bearish cross from the moving average convergence divergence indicator (MACD) a few days later. 

Previous confirmations from these three indicators were followed by 84% and 77% drawdowns during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, as shown in the chart above.

Intocryptoverse founder and CEO Benjamin Cowen said that the BTC/USD pair will likely bounce back to the 200-day SMA currently at $108,000, before resuming the downtrend, possibly bottoming around the 200-week MAs between $60,000 and $70,00 in 2026.

“All prior cycle bear markets were confirmed by a macro lower high at the 200D SMA.” 

As Cointelegraph reported, Bitcoin’s  200-day moving average turned bearish in November when a “death cross” occurred as it dipped below the shorter-term 50-day moving average, predicting 2026 to be a year of declines.

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