Key takeaways:
XRP (XRP) has rallied by over 550% since November to over $3 on Tuesday. The cryptocurrencyโs sharp gains have prompted technical analyst Gert van Lagen to predict a broader uptrend toward $34 this bull cycle.
Is it realistic for XRP to hit $30 and higher levels? Letโs take a closer look.
XRPโs double bottom hints at 10x gains
XRP has broken out of a seven-year double-bottom structure after rising above its neckline near $1.80, according to Van Lagen.
The cryptocurrency then pulled back to the neckline, which acted as support. In chart terms, such a retest often signals that the breakout is strong and traders are confident in higher prices.
Using the 2.00 Fibonacci extension of the pattern, Van Lagenโs measured-move projection points to a $34 target by mid-2026.
The setup mirrors XRPโs 2014โ2017 price action, when a similar multi-year base resolved into a parabolic rally, pushing XRP/USD over 100,000% higher.
XRPโs markets have witnessed such outsized moves in recent years. For instance, it gained roughly 1,072% since the 2022 lows. Before that, in 2020-2021, XRP price soared by over 1,625%.
XRPโs 2020โ21 rally largely took cues from a near-zero interest rate environment in the US. Its 2022โ25 gains were mainly fueled by progress in the Ripple lawsuit, growing legal clarity, exchange relistings, and ETF optimism.
The latter continues to guide XRP bulls in 2025 with 95% odds of a spot ETF approval and forecasts suggesting the token could rally toward $27 if the green light comes, close to Van Lagenโs target.
XRP Ledger metrics flash overvaluation risks
The growth of XRPโs parent chain, XRP Ledger (XRPL), lags far behind other major Layer-1s, including Ethereum, according to DefiLlama.
Its $190 billion market cap is roughly 2,200 times larger than its $85 million total-value-locked (TVL). Thatโs a stark contrast to Ethereumโs ratio of about 5.6, despite XRPโs valuation being nearly 40% of the latterโs.
Such a disparity has led to concerns over XRPโs extreme overvaluation relative to onchain activity.
Related: Bitcoin, Ether,ย XRPย price bump pushes market sentiment to โGreedโ
As of August, over 95% of XRPโs supply is in profit, a threshold that, during the 2020โ21 and 2022โ25 rallies, consistently preceded sharp price corrections, as shown in the Glassnode chart below.
When such a large share of holders sit on gains, profit-taking typically accelerates, creating sell pressure. Such a dynamic could challenge XRPโs ability to sustain its current uptrend toward $30.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
