Bitcoin Breaks Through Its VWAP Price in Repeat of May Rebound

Key points:

  • Bitcoin breaks through its volume-weighted average price (VWAP), echoing the rebound from Aprilโ€™s sub-$75,000 lows.

  • Stocks see fresh all-time highs as markets digest the Fed rate cut.

  • Liquidity suggests that volatility is incoming as BTC price targets $118,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) eyed $118,000 at Thursdayโ€™s Wall Street open as stocks hit new all-time highs.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Bitcoin breakout sets the stage for new all-time highs

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD consolidating daily gains above key resistance.

The first US trading session after the Federal Reserve enacted its first interest-rate cut of 2025 saw both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index hit fresh records.

BTC/USD vs. S&P 500 one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Reacting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter saw the risk-asset uptrend continuing into next year.

โ€œ2025 now marks the 3rd year since 1996 where rate cuts have happened with the S&P 500 at record highs. The previous 2 years? 2019 and 2024,โ€ it observed in part of its latest analysis on X.ย 

โ€œWhen the Fed cuts rates within 2% of all time highs, the S&P 500 has risen an average of +14% in 12 months.โ€

XAU/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Gold saw further volatility after beating all-time highs of its own the day prior, with $3,700 the level in focus.

Bitcoin bulls meanwhile attempted to cement $117,000 as support while staring down the final block of resistance before price discovery.

Caleb Franzen, creator of financial research resource Cubic Analytics, saw BTC/USD repeating a bullish pattern from May.

Then, as now, price broke above its volume-weighted average (VWAP) as measured from its latest all-time high.

โ€œIt’s almost like good things have happened since Bitcoin broke above its anchored volume-weighted average price from the ATHs,โ€ he summarized on X alongside an explanatory chart.

BTC/USD one-day chart with VWAP data. Source: Caleb Franzen/X

Warning over BTC price โ€œexit pumpโ€

A word of caution came from exchange order-book analysis.

Related: Bitcoin price gains 8% as September 2025 on track for best in 13 years

Trading resource Material Indicators was among those warning that liquidity was building around price, potentially opening the door for volatile moves.

โ€œWhile I feel like the macro is solidly bullish and the top isn’t in yet, this currently feels more like a short term exit pump, than accumulation. Time will tell,โ€ part of accompanying commentary stated.ย 

Earlier, Cointelegraph reported on thickening order-book liquidity, with $116,500 and $119,000 the levels to watch.

BTC/USDT order-book liquidity data with whale activity. Source: Material Indicators/X

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.