‘Book Closed’ On Bitcoin Vs. Gold Debasement Trade

Bitcoin (BTC) is looking like the loser versus gold as precious metals top new all-time highs Monday.

Key points:

• Bitcoin is not the debasement trade after years of loses against gold, analysis concludes.

• As precious metals hit all-time highs, BTC price action fails to rebound.

• Gold starts grilling the S&P 500, potentially shifting a years-old narrative if it continues to gain.

BTC debasement trade: “The narrative is broken”

New analysis from Karel Mercx, an investment specialist at Dutch investment advisory Beleggers Belangen, says Bitcoin has failed as the “debasement trade.”

Bitcoin slipped below 20 ounces in gold terms to start 2026, and is now circling two-year lows, per data from TradingView. 

As markets react to US government action against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, gold and silver continue to enjoy price discovery while Bitcoin flounders.

While bulls hope that BTC/USD will soon catch up, for Mercx, the writing has long been on the wall.

“The verdict is in: the debasement trade is Gold & Silver, not Bitcoin,” he told X followers in a post Monday. 

“A frontal attack on the FED sends metals to fresh ATHs while BTC sits 20% below its peak.”

Mercx took issue with the idea that Bitcoin is an attractive destination for investors seeking shelter from fiat currency supply dilution — also known as the “debasement trade.”

Despite how Bitcoin stacks up as “digital gold” versus bullion, actual capital flows point to demand for the latter.

“The narrative is broken,” he continued. 

“Investors are choosing the original hard money over the digital experiment. Book closed.”

Bitcoin price cycle obituaries mount

Among crypto proponents, a sense of urgency continues to build.

Related: Fed rate cuts under fire: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Addressing the topic, crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe acknowledged that time may be running out on a market rebound.

Times are starting to get interesting for anyone involved in the #Crypto markets.

Gold has made a new all-time high.
Silver has made a new all-time high.

My concern: it really needs to accelerate with this breakout, or we’ll start to tumble back down, and the bearish… pic.twitter.com/55VsW2UyuT

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) January 12, 2026

Turning to stocks, crypto market commentator Benjamin Cowen called gold’s performance against the S&P 500 “one of the most important charts right now.”

“If SPX breaks down against Gold, the environment we have found ourselves in for the last decade will completely change,” he argued about the monthly chart.

Last September, meanwhile, Mercx declared Bitcoin’s four-year price cycle “dead” — a narrative that has continued to gain popularity since.

“$BTC priced in gold shows each cycle weaker then the last one, and now the first 4-year loss,” he wrote at the time.