Anthony Scaramucci said Bitcoin may not see a meaningful recovery until October or November, arguing that the current drawdown still fits the assetโs historic four-year cycle despite a more favorable regulatory backdrop in Washington.
Speaking on the Thinking Crypto podcast from the Solana Policy Summit, the SkyBridge Capital founder framed the market weakness as a cyclical bear phase rather than a structural break. He said investors had expected a stronger policy-driven rally after the change in US administration, but that whales and long-time holders have continued to sell into ETF-driven demand.
โIโm old school. Iโve been in the category that this is a cyclical bear market traditional to the four-year cycle of Bitcoin,โ Scaramucci said. โYouโve just crossed the halfway mark of the halving and so youโre on your way to the back half of this thing. You typically donโt get any type of real recovery until the first quarter of next year.โ
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Scaramucci added that Bitcoinโs timeline may have been slightly accelerated by macro factors, including President Donald Trumpโs tariff-related messaging and geopolitical conflict. Still, he said Bitcoin has remained โfairly stickyโ during the war period referenced in the interview.
โYou probably wonโt see a recovery in Bitcoin until maybe the first month of the last quarter,โ he said, pointing to โOctober possibly Novemberโ as a more realistic window.
Why Bitcoin ETF Demand Has Not Been Enough
The comments address a central frustration across the crypto market: why prices have failed to respond more forcefully to a pro-crypto administration, institutional ETF access, and improving legislative momentum.
According to Scaramucci, the answer lies partly in supply. ETF activity has brought new buyers into Bitcoin, including older investors using traditional brokerage channels, but that demand has met heavy distribution from whales and early holders.
โYouโre still seeing a lot of Bitcoin buying. A lot of boomers are buying Bitcoin, but itโs just not enough,โ he said. โYou got whales that are selling into the โ the OGs in this industry believe in the four-year cycle. And so what they do is they fulfill the prophecy of the four-year cycle by acting on the four-year cycle and selling.โ
He said whales were โpumping lots of coins into the supply at around $100,000,โ which in his view contributed to Bitcoin falling into the high $60,000s.
Scaramucci also tied Bitcoinโs next phase of institutional adoption to US market-structure legislation, especially the Clarity Act. He argued that the idea Bitcoin is โvaluelessโ is now โcompletely off the table,โ but said banks are unlikely to move aggressively without clearer rules.
โIf you donโt get the Clarity Act legislation passed, youโre not going to get the banks to really open up,โ he said.
He cited experimental custody programs at Bank of New York and SoFi, while arguing that real adoption requires major money-center banks to offer custody, yield, and borrowing against Bitcoin on more competitive terms. Until then, he said, investors will not see โreal full-throated adoption.โ
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Scaramucci also criticized the political and lobbying dynamics around stablecoin yield and crypto legislation. He said banks are pushing back because of their entrenched market position, while warning that holding out for a perfect bill could delay progress.
โIโm a little bit more practical. I probably would have tried to get something done and I would not make the perfect deal the enemy of progress,โ he said. โThe best example I can give you is the Bitcoin ETF. Gary Gensler hates us. He did not want that to happen. He lost the lawsuit, so he was forced to have it happen.โ
Bitcoin Reserve Debate Still Politicized
On the question of whether the US government should hold Bitcoin in strategic reserves, Scaramucci said yes, but only if the issue can move beyond partisan framing.
โItโs very hard to hold Bitcoin in a strategic reserve if itโs a partisan issue,โ he said. โIf we can get this to be a transformative post-partisan whatโs right or wrong for the country, whatโs right or wrong for the American taxpayer, then the answer is yes.โ
He said he would not aggressively push the issue before broader consensus forms, instead favoring an approach where government-held Bitcoin from legal actions is retained rather than sold. He also said he was unsure whether the US government had completed an audit of its Bitcoin holdings.
At press time, BTC traded at $77,844.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
