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Bitcoin is the only major asset in the red while stocks, gold, and AI all sit at record highs, and that divergence is the most important signal on the board. After failing the 200-day moving average two weeks ago, bitcoin has now lost both the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and the True Market Mean, opening a downside map toward the 200-week. But the Sell-Side Risk Ratio just collapsed to a level only seen once before, in the late stage of the 2023 bear, and history says peak apathy is the setup, not the end.
Joe breaks down the exact three levels bitcoin just broke, why US institutions are selling it to chase AI, and the three forces lining up to reprice it while inflation reaccelerates and real wages turn negative.
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DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial advisor and nothing in this video should be taken as financial advice. The content here is for educational and entertainment purposes only. I share my personal opinions and analysis based on information I believe to be reliable, but I make no guarantees as to its accuracy or completeness. You should not treat anything I say as a specific recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
00:00 The Worst It’s Felt In A Decade
00:55 The Three Levels That Just Broke
02:45 The Downside Map: 75K, 65K, 61.6K
04:50 Why Everything Else Is Going Up
06:40 Institutions Are Selling Bitcoin To Chase AI
08:30 Bitcoin Is The Smoke Alarm
10:15 The Receipts: Sell-Side Risk At 2023 Lows
12:30 The Bear Case Is Real
13:30 Three Forces Loading At Once
15:00 Near-Term Is Noise, Long-Term Is The Game
▶ Coinbase Website: Coinbase.com
▶ CEX Website: cex.io
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