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Solana could be on track for a massive 323% rally this altcoin season, according to a new technical analysis by crypto strategist Quantum Ascend, who projects a potential peak around $830 based on market cap extensions and Elliott Wave structures. In a detailed July 22 breakdown, the analyst argues that most retail traders continue to overlook the impact of inflation and token supply dynamicsโfactors that significantly affect price projections.
Solana To $1,000 Is Not Realistic Thus Cycle
โLooking at the market cap chart, itโs up almost 216,000%, while the price chart is only up 18,000%. So what this tells us is, thereโs some kind of inflationary pressure on the asset,โ Quantum Ascend said. โYou have to use the market cap chart in order to measure the price.โ
Using Elliott Wave Theory, the analyst identified Solana as currently operating within a macro third waveโarguably the strongest phase of a five-wave impulse sequence. According to his count, Solana completed its first and second macro waves during previous market cycles and is now accelerating through the early stages of wave three, a move that could culminate in a parabolic rally.
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โRight now, what weโre working on is this macro wave three,โ he explained. โThe bear market will be macro four, and then weโll have another wave at some point well into the future.โ
To support this thesis, Quantum Ascend pulled Fibonacci extensions from Solanaโs historical price structures. He pointed to confluence between the 2.618 extension of the most recent accumulation range and the 3.618 extension of a broader range, both of which intersect near a $300 billion market cap. However, he views this zone as a mid-cycle checkpoint rather than a terminal target.
His conservative scenario puts Solana at a $620 price tag, representing a 217% move from current levels. But his primary projection suggests a 323% rally, translating to an $830 top based on market cap behavior and structural alignment. He cautioned that simply targeting round numbers like $1,000 can mislead traders, especially when inflation-adjusted market cap analysis tells a different story.
โIf I pull those same extensions here for Solana [on the price chart], because of the inflation, youโd be looking for $1,000, which is a nice round number and something that retail would love to hear,โ he said. โBut the market cap chart shows itโs topping that same extensions only at $830.โ
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The discrepancy arises from Solanaโs token inflation. As new tokens enter circulation, they dilute the impact of price movements. This is why, Quantum Ascend insists, market cap projections provide a more accurate view of potential upside. โThereโs not enough people paying attention to market cap. You have to do it,โ he emphasized.
In his final breakdown, the analyst laid out both price zones. โWe have $620 as our conservative, $830 as our primary here for Solana,โ he concluded. While some viewers may find the upper bound modest compared to speculative retail targets, he stressed the importance of realism over hype. โWeโre trying to make sure that weโre not buying into any crazy narratives or anything and weโre not leaving anything on the table and weโre not round tripping our bags.โ
At press time, SOL traded at $195.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
