Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin onchain metrics converge around $105,000, signaling a hidden risk zone.
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Elevated open interest keeps BTCโs market structure at risk of sudden volatility.
Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a ranging environment on Wednesday, after a brief retest from the demand zone between $112,000-$113,000.
At the moment, BTC is attempting to break above the descending resistance trendline, which could lead to a rally to Mondayโs highs at $115,700.
However, crypto analyst CryptoMe indicates a potential hidden risk zone for Bitcoin around the $105,000 level, an area thatโs starting to look increasingly significant across multiple onchain metrics.
Using Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) analysis and realized price models, the analyst outlines key indicators that are converging on the $105,000โ$106,000 region:
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UTXO Cost Basis Histogram reveals a significant wall at $105,644, suggesting high onchain accumulation or realization at this price.
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1โ3 Month Holder realized price also hovers near $106,000, reflecting the average cost for mid-term holders.
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Short-Term Holder (STH) realized price aligns closely at $105,350, showing the average acquisition cost for BTC held less than 155 days.
Although the data points to a potentially bearish setup in the short term, the analyst maintains a bullish outlook for Bitcoin over the medium and long term.
The possibility of a retest around $105,000 is viewed as a short-term scenario that could trigger sharp volatility and pose significant risks to leveraged traders in the derivatives market.
Likewise, data from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin is in a precarious position below $117,000.
Related: Bitcoin may still have steam for $250K this year: Fundstratโs Tom Lee
According to the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), significant resistance is around $117,000, where 634,051 BTC UTXOs were created, or last moved.
Below that level, a wide gap emerges, which stretches down to $108,000 with minimal support at $113,000. This gap indicates the potential for rapid downside movement if BTC loses its current price level, reinforcing the possibility of a trip toward $105,000.
Elevated OI signals market risks for BTC price
Trading platform Hyblock Capital highlights that Bitcoin open interest (OI) remains elevated at $79 billion, suggesting that speculation in the futures market hasnโt fully reset.
This keeps the market fragile, especially with BTC price undergoing a correction from its $123,000 all-time high.
According to Hyblock, when OI remains at frothy levels while the Fear & Greed Index enters โExtreme Greedโ territory, it historically precedes local tops and corrections.
This pattern, recently observed on July 16, led to BTCโs collapse to $112,000 from $120,000. The Fear & Greed Index has now reset to Neutral, but high open interest outlines price uncertainty.ย
Similarly, Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. says that futures market bearishness peaked at โ7.5% on July 29, shortly after BTC hit a new all-time high. While that pressure has since eased slightly to โ5.2%, the structural risks remain.
Adler warns that any sudden negative catalyst could trigger a cascade of long liquidations, quickly amplifying downside momentum.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
