XRP Whales Unload Massive Bags: Distribution Or Trap?

A fresh readout of CryptoQuant’s “Whale Flow (30-day moving average)” for the XRP Ledger points to renewed distribution by large holders, according to on-chain analyst Maartunn. Sharing the chart, he summed up the signal on X: “🚨XRP Whales are selling heavily. It’s clear distribution. On-chain data tells the story. In data, we trust.”

XRP Whales Unload Millions

The dataset decomposes large-holder activity into positive and negative whale flow and smooths it with a 30-day average to reduce noise. On the latest print, the histogram is dominated by deep, sustained negative bars, signaling net outflows from whale cohorts rather than accumulation.

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The timing aligns with price behavior: after XRP vaulted above $1 in late December 2024 and accelerated toward roughly $3.40 by mid-January 2025, the 30-DMA of whale flow flipped decisively negative. Through February–March 2025 the negative leg deepened, with the smoothed net flow bottoming around approximately −60 million to −70 million XRP, a trough among the most pronounced on the multi-year chart.

That heavy distribution abated only briefly. From April through June 2025 the whale-flow 30-DMA turned positive for about three months, topping in the vicinity of +10 million to +20 million XRP. Importantly, that respite coincided with a cooler tape: price slid below $2.00 in April, then oscillated largely between ~$2.00 and a ~$2.60 ceiling into late June.

As soon as XRP reclaimed roughly $2.60 in mid-July, the negative histogram returned, and by August the smoothed net flow had retreated again toward approximately −40 million to −50 million XRP. Price meanwhile ran back above $2.60 in mid-July and spiked to a new high at $3.66 by end of the month. While XRP consolidates near $3, the whale-flow 30-DMA remains firmly negative at roughly −40 million XRP.

Two structural takeaways stand out from this sequence. First, the heaviest negative prints in early Q1 2025 clustered immediately after the late-2024/early-2025 breakout from ~$1.00 to above $3.00, consistent with large-balance profit-taking and supply returning to market as price momentum stretched.

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Second, the only sustained positive-flow window—April to June—overlapped a period when spot weakened below $2.00 and could not sustain moves beyond ~$2.60, suggesting whales were less inclined to distribute into a soft market and more inclined to add or at least reduce selling pressure during consolidation. The return to sizable negative flow once price pushed back through ~$2.60 in mid-July supports Maartunn’s characterization of renewed “distribution.”

As ever, there are caveats. Whale-flow heuristics aggregate transfers from large addresses and cannot perfectly separate exchange internalization, custodian rebalancing, or OTC settlement from directional selling. And a 30-day smoothing window introduces lag: a sharp behavior change by whales will take time to surface. Even so, the breadth and persistence of the negative bars—near −70M/−80M XRP at their Q1 depths, sliding back toward −40M XRP in August—tilt the balance of evidence toward a market still digesting supply from big holders.

For now, the on-chain picture is straightforward: large-balance entities remain net suppliers on a smoothed basis. If that regime persists, trend continuation likely demands either a fade in the negative flow back toward neutral/positive or enough external demand to absorb the overhang. As Maartunn put it, “It’s clear distribution… On-chain data tells the story.”

At press time, XRP traded at $3.00.

Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com