Bitcoin endured one of its sharpest selloffs of the year on Tuesday, knifing below the six-figure threshold and printing lows around the $99,000 area on major composites before rebounding. At press time, bitcoin (BTC) hovered near $101,700 after an intraday trough just above $99,000 on widely used benchmarks, marking a fall of roughly 6% day-over-day and the lowest print since June.
The slide came as US equities limped into mid-week, with the Nasdaq up 20.9% year-to-date and the S&P 500 up 15.1% as of Tuesdayโs closeโgains that underscore how much bitcoin has lagged other risk assets during long stretches of 2025. That divergence, together with a growing body of ETF-flow data showing several straight sessions of net outflows from US spot bitcoin funds into early November, provided the macro backdrop for a fragile crypto tape. Independent tallies from Farside/SoSoValue and multiple outlets point to a roughly $1.3โ$1.4 billion cumulative bleed over four trading days into November 3โ4, led by BlackRockโs IBIT.
Why Is Bitcoin Price Down?
Into that context, Joe ConsortiโHead of Growth at Horizon (Theya, YC)โargues the selloff is less a loss of conviction than a structural handoff of supply. In a video analysis posted late November 4 US time, he framed the dayโs move as โone of its roughest days of the year, down more than 6 percent, falling to $99,000 for the first time since June,โ adding that while equities would call that โthe start of a bear marketโฆ for Bitcoin, though, this is typical of a bull market drawdown.โ He noted that โweโve already weathered two separate 30 percent drawdowns during this bull run,โ and characterized the present action as โa transfer of Bitcoinโs ownership base from the old guard to the new guard.โ
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Consorti anchored his thesis to a now-viral framework from macro investor Jordi Visser: bitcoinโs โsilent IPO.โ In Visserโs Substack essayโshared widely since the weekendโhe posits that 2025โs rangebound price belies an orderly, IPO-like distribution as early-era holders access the deepest liquidity the asset has ever had through ETFs, institutional custodians and corporate balance sheets.
โEarly-stage investorsโฆ need liquidity. They need an exit. They need to diversify,โ Visser wrote, arguing that methodical selling โresults [in] a sideways grind that drives everyone crazy.โ Consorti adopted the frame bluntly: โThis isnโt panic selling, itโs the natural evolution of an asset thatโs reached maturityโฆ a transfer of ownership from concentrated hands to distributed ones.โ
Evidence for that churn has been visible on-chain. Multiple instances of Satoshi-era wallets and miner addresses reanimating this quarterโsome after 14 yearsโhave been documented, including Julyโs duo of 10,000-BTC wallets and late-October movement from a 4,000-BTC miner address. While not dispositive that coins are being market-sold, the pattern is consistent with supply redistributing from early concentrates to broader, regulated channels.
Technically, Consorti cast the drop as part of โdigestion,โ not exhaustion. โThe RSI tells us Bitcoin is at its most oversold level since April, when the last leg of the bull run began. Every drawdown this cycle, 30%, 35%, and now 20%, has built support rather than destroyed it.โ He added a key conditional: โIf we spend too much time below $100,000, that could suggest the distribution isnโt doneโฆ perhaps weโre in for a bull-market reversal into a bear market.โ
Macro, however, is intruding. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps on October 29 to a 3.75%โ4.00% target range, but Chair Jerome Powell carefully pushed back on the idea of an automatic December cut, citing โstrongly differing viewsโ inside the FOMC and a โdata fogโ from the ongoing government shutdown. Markets promptly tempered their odds for further near-term easing. Consortiโs warning that bitcoin โis extremely correlatedโ to risk-asset drawdowns therefore looms large: if equities lurch meaningfully lower or funding stress reappears, crypto will feel it.
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If Visserโs โsilent IPOโ is right, ETFs are both symptom and salve. They have delivered the two-sided depth to absorb legacy supply but also introduced a new, faster-moving cohort whose redemptions can amplify downdrafts. That dynamic showed up again this week in the four-day string of net outflows concentrated in IBIT, even as longer-term assets under management remain enormous by historical standards.
Consortiโs conclusion was starkly patient, not euphoric. โFor every seller looking to liquidate their position, thereโs a new participant stepping in for the long haulโฆ Itโs slow, itโs uneven, and itโs psychologically draining, but once itโs finished, it unlocks the next leg higher. Because the marginal seller is gone, and whatโs left is a base of holders who donโt need to sell.โ
Whether Tuesdayโs pierce of the six-figure floor proves the climactic flushโor merely another chapter in a months-long ownership transferโwill hinge on how quickly price reclaims and bases above $100,000, how ETF flows stabilize, and whether the Fedโs path from here restores risk appetite or starves it. For now, the most important story in bitcoin may be happening under the surface, not on the chart.
At press time, BTC traded at $101,865.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
