Bitcoin ETF Investors In Profit Amid Interest Rate Cut Expectations

BlackRockโ€™s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) holders are back in profit after Bitcoinโ€™s recovery above $90,000, an early sign that sentiment may be turning among one of the key investor groups driving the market this year.

The holders of the largest spot Bitcoin (BTC) fund, BlackRockโ€™s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT), bounced back to a cumulative profit of $3.2 billion on Wednesday, according to blockchain data platform Arkham.

โ€œBlackRock IBIT and ETHA holders went from being up almost a combined $40 billion at their PnL peak on 7th October, down to $630 million 4 days ago,โ€ wrote Arkham in a Wednesday X post. โ€œThis means the average of all BlackRock ETF buys is at just about break-even.โ€

With ETF holders no longer under pressure, Bitcoin ETFs may continue to slow their selling rate, which has seen a significant improvement since the $903 million in outflows recorded on Nov. 20.

BlackRock IBIT Bitcoin ETF holders, unrealized profit and loss ratio, three-month chart. Source: Arkham

Bitcoin ETFs recorded two consecutive days of inflows for the first time in two weeks, with a modest $21 million in cumulative inflows on Wednesday, according to Farside Investors.

The development is a welcome sign for Bitcoin, as BlackRockโ€™s Bitcoin ETF was the only fund to realize net positive inflows for 2025, according to K33 Research.

Source: Vetle Lunde

The inflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs were the primary driver of Bitcoinโ€™s momentum in 2025, Standard Charteredโ€™s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, told Cointelegraph recently.

BlackRock is the worldโ€™s largest asset management firm, with $13.5 trillion in assets under management as of the third quarter of 2025.

Related: Over 8% of Bitcoin changed hands in week, markets on โ€˜knifeโ€™s edge,โ€™ Analysts say

Bitcoin ETF investors no longer under pressure amid growing interest-rate cut expectations

The broader spot Bitcoin ETF investor cohort is also back in profit after Bitcoin climbed above the key $89,600 flow-weighted cost basis, a level that was lost two weeks ago.

Bitcoinโ€™s recovery follows a sharp increase in interest rate cut expectations for the US Federal Reserveโ€™s Dec. 10 meeting, with odds increasing by 46% in a week.

Interest rate cut probabilities. Source: CMEgroup.com

Markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate cut, up from 39% a week ago, according to the CME Groupโ€™s FedWatch tool.

Related: Bitcoin rout continues as crypto treasuries face reckoning: Finance Redefined

Two weeks ago, Bitcoinโ€™s price correction pushed Bitcoin ETF holders below theirย flow-weighted cost basis near $89,600, according to Glassnode analyst Sean Rose, with the average holder facing paper losses on their investment.

However, most ETF holders are โ€œlong-term allocators,โ€ meaning that โ€œbeing underwater doesnโ€™t trigger quick exits,โ€ Vincent Liu, the chief investment officer at quantitative trading firm Kronos Research, told Cointelegraph.

Magazine: Bitcoin is โ€˜funny internet moneyโ€™ during a crisis: Tezos co-founder