Cryptocurrency wallet makers and security companies are pushing out post-quantum products even though large-scale quantum computers capable of breaking Bitcoin do not exist yet.
The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) finalized its first post-quantum cryptography standards in 2024 and called for migrations before 2030.
As standards bodies plan for a gradual cryptographic transition, parts of the wallet market are already monetizing that future.
โI do feel that it is a bit of a fear tax. We know that quantum computers are far away โ still five to 15 years away,โ Alexei Zamyatin, co-founder of Build on Bitcoin (BOB), told Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin is trading roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high. Among the handful of theories attempting to explain cryptoโs recent decline is a growing concern that quantum computing risks may be deterring institutional capital from Bitcoin.
The quantum risk is not zero, and it is not sudden
The quantum vulnerability often discussed is Bitcoinโs Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm, which authorizes transactions. In theory, a powerful quantum computer could derive a private key from an exposed public key and claim the coins sitting in an address.
Todayโs quantum hardware isnโt capable of breaking the elliptic curve signatures. But that doesnโt mean threat actors are waiting around for a technical breakthrough.
โMany users expect a single โQ-Dayโ in the future when cryptography suddenly fails. In reality, risk accumulates gradually as cryptographic assumptions weaken and exposure increases,โ Kapil Dhiman, CEO and co-founder of Quranium, told Cointelegraph.
โHarvest now, decrypt-later strategies are already active, meaning data and signatures exposed today are being collected against future capability,โ he said.
Related: What if quantum computers already broke Bitcoin?
In Bitcoinโs case, the concern is for older exposed public keys. Once a public key appears onchain, it remains permanently visible. Modern address formats obscure public keys until coins are spent.
CoinShares Bitcoin researcher Christopher Bendiksen said that just 10,230 Bitcoin (BTC) sit in addresses with publicly exposed public keys that would be vulnerable to a sufficiently powerful quantum attack.
The quantum fear business
While the Bitcoin community debates how far away quantum computing is, crypto wallet makers are operating on their own clock.
Trezorโs Safe 7 is marketed as a โquantum-readyโ hardware wallet. Separately, qLabs recently introduced the Quantum-Sig wallet, which it claims embeds post-quantum signatures directly into its signing process.
BOBโs Zamyatin argued that wallet-level defenses would not solve Bitcoinโs quantum risk. Bitcoin transactions are authorized using a signature scheme embedded in the protocol itself. If that cryptography were ever broken, the fix would require a protocol-level change.
โI personally wouldnโt invest a lot of money into a quantum wallet right now because I donโt even know what protection it gives me for Bitcoin. It canโt really give me any protection, in my opinion, because Bitcoin doesnโt have a quantum-resistant signature scheme yet.โ
Ada Jonuลกฤ, executive director at qLabs, agreed that full quantum resilience requires protocol-level defense. However, brushing off modern infrastructure as a fear tax overlooks the transitional nature of security upgrades.
โQuantum risk is not binary. Even before a protocol-level migration occurs, there is a real โharvest now, decrypt laterโ threat,โ she told Cointelegraph, claiming that qLabsโ approach reduces exposed key surface.
โQuantum readiness is about proactive infrastructure planning, not fear monetization,โ Jonuลกฤ said.
Related: Bitcoinโs quantum countdown has already begun, Naoris CEO says
Trezor also admitted that blockchains themselves need to change their cryptography and protocol. But Tomรกลก Suลกรกnka, the companyโs chief technology officer, told Cointelegraph that wallets can implement protections right away instead of waiting for protracted blockchain upgrades.
โOnce the blockchains upgrade, wallets must also support the same algorithms to remain compatible,โ Suลกรกnka said. He added that Trezor Safe 7 uses a post-quantum algorithm to protect against future quantum computers forging digital signatures and signing malicious firmware updates.
Market incentives and Bitcoinโs governance hurdle
Unlike iPhones, which are released almost every year, hardware wallets and other security products typically have multi-year product lifecycles. Introducing post-quantum features in a new product gives a reason for customers to buy a new device, even if the threat is distant.
โYes, parts of the crypto industry do have incentives to amplify quantum risk, but that incentive is increasingly driven by regulatory and institutional alignment, not short-term sales alone,โ said Dhiman, whose Quranium powers the Qsafe wallet.
โFor most users, quantum-secure wallets today function as long-term insurance. The responsible approach is to acknowledge the transition ahead, avoid urgency driven by fear and choose systems designed to evolve without forcing abrupt replacements.โ
Several blockchains are advancing with post-quantum strategies, but Bitcoin has been relatively hesitant. Some of the networkโs most influential voices have brushed off the threat as a problem for the future.
Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has a widely recognized figurehead. Co-founder Vitalik Buterin has advocated for post-quantum preparations, and the network has been steering in that direction.
For Bitcoin, the issue is social consensus, coordination and the willingness to act, according to Zamyatin.
โItโs not like [Bitcoin has] one person that everyone will follow. It will require a broad social consensus, which is very hard to achieve,โ he said.
Wallet makers agree that full quantum protection has to come from the protocol. But even if the risk is years away, they can act as insurance to help investors sleep better at night, though some argue they amount to a fear tax.
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