Summary:
- Bitcoin could find a floor at $28k based on its correlation to the S&P 500
- $28k also happens to be close to Bitcoin’s current Metcalfe value of $29k
- Bitmex’s Arthur Hayes had previously warned of a drop to $30k by the end of June
- Short-term sellers have dominated Bitcoin’s decline in the last few days
The number one digital asset of Bitcoin (BTC) could find a floor at the $28k price area. This is according to a forecast shared by Timothy Peterson of Cane Island Alternative Advisors, who also explained that the forecast was based on Bitcoin being correlated to the traditional markets, and specifically, the S&P500.
He also added that $28k is a possibility as it is close to Bitcoin’s lowest price forward according to his Metcalfe model of analyzing digital assets.
He said:
Bitcoin beta to SP500 since 2015 is 0.95.
A (3200 / 4100 – 1 = ) -22% decline in equities implies 0.95*(-0.22-0.03)+0.03=-21% drop in $BTC. $36,000 * (1-.21) = $28,000.
I think this would be the floor. Just below lowest price forward.
#Bitcoin beta to #SP500 since 2015 is 0.95. A (3200 / 4100 – 1 = ) -22% decline in equities (see https://t.co/YHcOyvzwrM) implies 0.95*(-0.22-0.03)+0.03=-21% drop in $BTC. $36,000 * (1-.21) = $28,000. I think this would be the floor. Just below lowest price forward. pic.twitter.com/8diFF9BBmg
— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredmacro) May 6, 2022
The Median Decline of the S&P 500 During a Recession is -35%
His calculation is also based on another observation that ‘the median decline for the S&P 500 during a recession (since 1971) is -35%.’
Consequently, given the S&P500 hit a recent high of $4,900, a drop to $3,200 is probable. He also pointed out that the S&P 500 is trading around the $4,100 price area, thus indicating that the traditional markets might still have a long way to go before finding a bottom.
Bitmex’s Arthur Hayes Had Also Forecasted Bitcoin at the $30k
Mr. Peterson’s analysis echoes the prediction made by the Founder and former CEO of Bitmex, Arthur Hayes, when he warned that Bitcoin could test the $30k level by the end of June this year. His analysis was based on pure ‘gut feeling’ and that ‘Bitcoin and Ether will bottom well before the Fed acts and U-turns its policy from tight to loose.’
Mr. Hayes’ latter statement implies that the crypto markets could bottom before the Fed shifts from its current quantitative tightening (characterized by interest rate hikes) to quantitative easing.
Short-term Bitcoin Holders are Selling
Concerning Bitcoin’s current woes below the $38k support level, the team at WuBlockchain has used on-chain data to conclude that short-term holders have been selling BTC, further contributing to the ongoing crypto-market meltdown. The analysis stated the following:
According to CryptoQuant data, the decline in the past two days may be dominated by short-term holders. On the 5th and 6th [of April], a total of 11.76k “young” BTC held for less than 3 months flowed into the exchange.
[Feature image courtesy of Pexels.com]
