Bitcoin’s higher-timeframe structure is in an interesting state, according to crypto analyst Crypto Patel, who is of the notion that the cryptocurrency has officially entered bearish territory after breaking a long-term support level at $107,000.
Technical analysis of price action on the weekly candlestick price chart shows Bitcoin is now in this bearish territory, with a projection of a deeper correction to as low as $35,000 in 2026. The outlook is based on Fibonacci retracement levels that could determine Bitcoin’s next price move.
Bearish Territory Kicked In After Breakdown Below $107,000
The outlook of this technical analysis is based on the premise that Bitcoin entered into bearish territory after the price broke down below a major higher-timeframe ascending trendline around $107,000. This trendline, which is visible on the weekly chart shared by Crypto Patel, acted as dynamic support throughout much of the 2023 to 2025 rally. It connected a series of higher lows and helped sustain the broader bullish structure that ended with Bitcoin reaching a peak price of $126,080.
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The chart shows the breakdown zone with a red circle, indicating where the price decisively lost that upward support. After the breach, Bitcoin entered into a changed momentum and began printing lower highs. According to Patel, that trendline was the line in the sand, and losing it was when Bitcoin officially entered bearish territory. The market now needs a healthy correction before the next leg up.
Fibonacci Levels Point To $44,000 And $35,000
Bitcoin has been on a downward path since the beginning of the year, and the projection is that this will continue until it bottoms out around $35,000. This outlook is based on how much the Bitcoin price corrected in previous cycles.
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For instance, the 2018 bear market saw an approximately 84% decline from peak to trough. Similarly, the 2022 correction erased roughly 77% from its cycle high. In both instances, these deep retracements came before the next major rally.
Based on that historical perspective, a move below $50,000 from the current price level would not be unprecedented. Instead, it would fit within Bitcoin’s established cycle behavior.
The projected downside targets are derived from Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the October 2025 all-time high. Two levels stand out clearly on the chart. The first level is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, which is currently around $44,000. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement is a mid-cycle pullback level and has always attracted strong buying interest in previous corrections, making it a possible stabilization point if selling pressure slows down.
Should Bitcoin fail to find support near $44,000, then the next level is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement around $35,000. The expectation is that Bitcoin will eventually bottom at $35,000 even if it fails to hold above $44,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $63,740, down by 6% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
