Market analysts predict that miners might sell off around $5 billion worth of Bitcoin in the months after the upcoming halving, a trend seen in past cycles.
According to estimations by Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, in an April 13 analyst note, bitcoin miners might liquidate $5 billion in BTC following the halving.
“The overhang from this selling could last four to six months, explaining why Bitcoin might go sideways for the next few months — as it has done following past halvings,” he said in a statement.
Thielen believes that this might happen again, with crypto markets facing “a significant challenge in a six-month’summer’ lull.”
Bitcoin prices remained in the range bound between $9,000 and $11,500 for the five months following the 2020 halving.
This year, the halving will take place around April 20, only six days away, therefore markets may not experience a big upward trend until around October, if history repeats.
Furthermore, miners prefer to stockpile BTC, “leading to a supply/demand imbalance and a subsequent rally in Bitcoin prices,” leading up to the halving, he stated.
This has already happened, with Bitcoin values rising 74% in 2024 to a record high of $73,734 on March 14 before falling below $63,000 in mid-April.
Thielen also pointed out the disproportionate impact on altcoins, which have significantly receded from their peak values in 2021. Despite speculation about a post-halving altcoin rally, Thielen referenced historical evidence suggesting such a rally would typically start around six months later.
Focusing on specific mining operations, Thielen mentioned that Marathon, the world’s largest Bitcoin miner, has accumulated an inventory likely to be gradually sold post-halving to avoid a sharp drop in revenue. Marathon currently mines approximately 28–30 BTC per day, and post-halving, this could add up to 133 days of additional supply to the market, with an ongoing production of 14–15 BTC per day.
Thielen concluded that if all miners adopt a similar strategy, the market could see up to $104 million worth of Bitcoin being sold each day post-halving, potentially reversing the supply-demand imbalance that has driven the recent price rally.
Around April 20, the halving will cut the amount of Bitcoin that “miners” can earn each day for validating transactions to 450 from 900 now. Bitcoin’s current price could spell revenue losses of around US$10 billion a year for the industry as a whole.
Marathon Digital Holdings, CleanSpark, and other miners, which compete for a fixed Bitcoin payout by solving mathematical puzzles using superfast computers, have invested in new equipment and sought to acquire smaller competitors in an effort to offset revenue declines.
“This is the final push for miners to squeeze out as much revenue as they can before their production takes a big hit,” said Matthew Kimmell, a digital asset analyst at CoinShares.
“With revenues across the board decreasing overnight, the strategic response of each miner, and how they adapt, could well determine who comes out ahead and who gets left behind.”
Last week, Marathon CEO Peter Thiel stated that the company’s break-even rate for being profitable after the halving would be around $46,000 per BTC, expecting that there would be no substantial price changes in the six months following the event.
“Traditionally, a larger bullish cycle has always followed the Bitcoin halving. Although we might see some volatility in the short term after the halving, it will likely translate into a prolonged bull market for Bitcoin,” Alvin Kan, COO at Bitget Wallet, told Crypto.news.
Kan said that ETFs will continue to be a major factor in the market’s dynamics. Since the SEC’s approval in January, spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a total cumulative net inflow of $56.27 billion, marking the fastest growth in the history of the ETF market. The rapid influx has contributed to Bitcoin reaching its all-time high so early in the bull market.
“So, I think the ETF flow will remain largely positive after the halving. It might even increase, given that investors are aware of the positive impact that halving tends to have on Bitcoin’s price, and they will want to benefit from it,” he added.
