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Dogecoin changed hands near $0.162 in late-European trading on June 26, little changed on the day but still more than 13% above last Sundayโs swing low. Yet beneath that placid price action, the market is balancing on what YouTube analyst More Crypto Online calls โa wait-and-see situationโ that could ignite either a decisive upside impulse or a slide back toward $0.14.
Dogecoin Teeters On The Edge
In a video published yesterday under the headline โIs DOGE About to CRASH or SOAR? Price Analysis & Scenarios,โ the Elliott-wave commentator argues that the advance from the June 22 bottom remains incomplete.
โThe Doge chart is currently still, yeah, trying to reverse here to the upside from the swing low that formed on the 22nd of June,โ he says at the outset, stressing that the rise so far is โonly a three-wave move.โ Because the structure has not yet printed the full five-wave sequence that typically inaugurates a new bullish trend, he cautions traders against assuming the worst is over.
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The technician locates that June 22 low inside a demand band between $0.15 and $0.14, a zone that also includes the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of the MayโJune rally and sits just above Aprilโs cycle throughโhis hard โinvalidation point.โ From there, Dogecoin bounced in what he labels an a-b-c recovery, with the third wave peaking at $0.169, exactly the 1.618 Fibonacci extension he looks for in a โhealthy third wave.โ If price can now carve a fourth-wave higher low and extend to a fifth-wave high near $0.174โ$0.177, the analyst says, โwe actually get five waves up and then we can add support โฆ and we have a setup.โ
Until that confirmation, the move remains a โchameleon-likeโ B-waveโprone to deeper pullbacks than the more bullish wave-two alternative. The line in the sand is $0.158. โAny break now below $0.158 cents would indicate the upside-reversal attempt is failed and we fall back into the support region, maybe weโll even test the $0.14 level,โ he warns. Conversely, holding that micro-support and punching through the $0.17 handle would provide the first โevidenceโ that a durable bottom has formed.
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The stakes are high because, as the analyst points out, confirmation of a five-wave impulse would force subsequent corrections to respect a higher-low framework, allowing traders to reposition with clearer risk parameters. Failure would likely drag Dogecoin back into the wide consolidation range that has dominated June and risk flipping sentiment toward a protracted downside grind.
For now, the memecoinโs near-term fate rests on whether buyers can engineer that final fifth-wave pop without first violating $0.158. โAt the moment,โ he concludes, โweโre in a wait-and-see situation to see if we actually get five waves up.โ Until the chart resolves, Dogecoin remains suspended between a technical breakout and another leg downโboom or bust hinging on a single intraday signal.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.161.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
