Key takeaways:
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The US Labor Department revised payrolls down by 911,000 jobs, the largest cut in history, signaling deep labor market weakness.
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The revision strengthens expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut even though inflation is still elevated.
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Bitcoin may mirror goldโs rally and regain momentum toward new highs in Q4.
Bitcoin (BTC) could be set to benefit price-wise in the coming weeks as the US Labor Department delivered the largest payroll revision in history, wiping 911,000 jobs from previously reported data for the 12 months ending March 2025. Thatโs an average of 76,000 jobs overstated per month, officially larger than the 2009 revision at the peak of the global financial crisis.
According to the Kobeissi newsletter, losses were concentrated in consumer-driven categories, including โ176,000 jobs in Leisure and Hospitality and โ226,000 in Trade, Transportation, and Utilities. Total private hiring was overstated by 880,000 jobs, a scale of weakness not seen outside the Great Depression and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.
The revisions add to a concerning trend. Last month, the US cut 258,000 jobs from the May and June reports. Yesterdayโs revision tacked on another 27,000, marking the largest two-month net revision in modern history outside of 2020. Alongside Augustโs weak 22,000-job gain, the data all but lock in a Federal Reserve rate cut at next weekโs meeting.
Gold has already priced it in; Bitcoin may be next
Gold, the traditional store of value, has surged 40% this year, with gold miners nearly doubling returns, nearly 10 times that of the S&P 500. Investors have long bet that a weakening labor market would force the Fed to act, despite the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) back above 3% and growth near 3%.
For Bitcoin, the implications may be even more powerful. Bitwise Strategist Andrรฉ Dragosch captured it succinctly in an X post, stating,ย
โThe Fed hasnโt even cut rates yetโand people are still fading the #bitcoin vs. money supply chart. Major USD stablecoins are already flashing the same signal: macro liquidity is expanding. Bullish for #Bitcoin.โ
Related: Nasdaq seeks access to Geminiโs crypto services via investment: Report
Bitcoin thrives in liquidity expansions
With the Federal Reserve expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in eight days, it will mark the first cut in history with inflation still hot, stocks at record highs and GDP strong. That combination signals one thing: The central bank is prioritizing labor weakness over inflation, creating a โdovish but cautiousโ tone.
The advantage remains clear for Bitcoin. Just as gold rallied months ahead of policy confirmation, Bitcoinโs lean positioning and historical sensitivity to liquidity cycles could transform this rare policy mix into a powerful upside catalyst, potentially reviving momentum toward new highs in Q4.ย
Analytics platform Tephra Digital earlier forecast that,ย
โIf Bitcoinโs lagged M2 and gold correlations hold, the rest of the year could be very interesting. Charts below point to $167kโ185k.โ
Related: Lessons learned from a graduate-level Bitcoin class
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
