Bitcoin and Ethereum are set for their worst February in years, though analysts think the bull market isnโt over.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are set to wrap up a rough month, with BTC dropping over 7.8% to $86,774.59 and ETH plunging 9.47% to $2,403. Should both close the month at current levels, it would be their worst February in years. But despite the downturn, voices in the crypto space arenโt panicking. Many still see a long-term bull market in the making, though they acknowledge that the cycles are evolving.
Changing landscape of altcoins
Pseudonymous crypto trader Pentoshi believes the days of explosive altcoin rallies, like in 2017 and 2021, may be gone for good. โI think for alts, we will never see a run like 2017 / 2021 again. But I also said that previous to this run,โ the trader wrote in an X post on Feb. 25, suggesting that the crypto market has simply grown too large.
โThe space is just way too big now, with hundreds of millions of people where as there we really did start at 0 for defi and in 2017 all alts combined were 13B. We just started at such a high floor,โ Pentoshi explained. Essentially, with so much more capital already in play, it takes significantly more to move the needle compared to past cycles.
Pentoshi also sees the next big speculative bubble happening outside of crypto. โI also believe the next bubble wonโt even be in crypto, itโs likely going to be in Robotics/AI. 50% of the global GDP is labor, a 50T annual market as Kang pointed out.โ While Pentoshi still sees opportunities in crypto, the trader emphasizes that the market is maturing and unrealistic expectations need to be adjusted.
New bull market
Bitcoinโs halving events have historically driven massive bull runs, but this time, things may be different. Pierre Rochard, vice president of research at Riot Platforms, sees a shift in how the market reacts.
โHistorically, halvings dramatically reduced bitcoinโs new supply and sparked parabolic price increases. However, with each halving, the relative reduction in freshly minted bitcoin decreases, making this fourth halving a smaller shock to the market,โ he wrote in an X post.
Instead of a rapid price surge, he expects a slower, more stable climb, โalign[ing] with underlying demand, rather than the sharp run-ups and crashes of the past.โ Rochard also notes that changes in U.S. policy under President Donald Trump could provide a more favorable regulatory environment for Bitcoin.
โPresident Trumpโs historic return to the White House is ushering in a new regulatory era for bitcoin, reversing the strict capital controls and compliance burdens previously placed on banks.โ
Pierre Rochard
This, coupled with increasing institutional interest, is helping solidify Bitcoinโs position in the traditional financial system, Rochard explains.
โFrom ETFs that wrap bitcoin exposure into a digestible format to large companies like MicroStrategy that hold substantial reserves in BTC with intelligent leverage, the financial industry is recognizing bitcoinโs potential as an alternative asset.โ
Pierre Rochard
That said, Rochard acknowledges the risks, saying that โover-leveraged traders will continue to spark sudden liquidations, while macroeconomic events and pauses in demand inevitably cause periods of sideways price action and corrections within the bull run.โ Even so, he remains bullish in the long term, suggesting that โthe long-term strategy for bitcoin remains ongoing accumulation.โ
Correlation with equities
Another big factor influencing the market is the broader macroeconomic environment. According to BlockTower Capitalโs co-founder Ari Paul, equities are in for a rough ride.
โMy market take: equities in for 4-15 months of pain (Iโll guess 9 months) tied to deflationary government policies (tariffs and mass layoffs mostly),โ Paul said in an X post, adding that while crypto and equities donโt move in perfect sync, there is some short-term correlation.
โAlts probably follow equities down at least at first (but theyโre already down so much, even versus 2021 prices, they may bottom well before equities.)โ
Ari Paul
As for Bitcoin, he sees it as a mix between gold and stocks, suggesting that BTC will continue to act โlike a blend of gold and S&P 500.โ
โIf gold remains strong, than that would suggest bitcoin would outperform losing equities, but maybe not by much.โ
Ari Paul
He predicts a possible dip before the next leg up, admitting that a retrace to ~$73,000 โseems plausible.โ However, Paul remains confident in the broader bull market, even if it takes longer than expected.
Big picture
Despite recent price drops, the crypto community doesnโt seem ready to give up just yet. Instead, investors see a maturing market with more institutional adoption, better regulatory clarity, and a more sustainable growth trajectory. Bitcoinโs bull run isnโt following past patterns, but that doesnโt necessarily mean itโs over.
Altcoins may not see the same kind of wild gains from previous cycles, but thatโs partly because crypto is no longer a niche market โ itโs a trillion-dollar industry. Meanwhile, macroeconomic trends could lead to volatility, but many expect Bitcoin and Ethereum to keep proving their value in the long run.
