Key takeaways:
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XRPโs strongest spot premium phase suggests real buying demand, not just speculative futures trading.
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The number of XRP addresses holding โฅ10,000 tokens has steadily climbed, even during recent price pullbacks.
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A falling wedge pattern points to a possible breakout toward $3 to $3.78, with up to 70% upside if confirmed.
XRP (XRP) is experiencing its strongest sustained phase of spot premium in history, a period where the spot market has been consistently trading at stronger levels compared to perpetual futures.
XRPโs 350% rally is backed by real demand
Since 2020, most major XRP price peaks happened when the perpetual futures market was leading, noted market analyst Dom in his May 2 post on X.
XRPโs futures prices being higher than spot signaled excessive speculation and led to sharp price drops.
As of 2025, a spot premium suggests that demand from actual XRP buyers is driving the rally, pointing to a more stable price rise compared to past runs powered by leveraged bets.
Further reinforcing the case for real demand, Glassnode data shows a consistent rise in the number of XRP addresses holding at least 10,000 XRP (the green wave in the chart below) since late November 2024.
XRPโs price has rallied by approximately 350% since then.
XRPโs whale count has risen even during its 35% price pullback between January and April. It suggests that larger holdersโoften viewed as more patient or strategic investorsโare steadily accumulating positions in anticipation of further gains.
Optimism has been fueled by improving odds of spot XRP ETF approval in the US. The US Securities and Exchange Commissionโs (SEC) decision to drop its lawsuit against Ripple has further boosted the marketโs upside sentiment.
Related: SEC punts decisions on XRP, DOGE ETFs
Falling wedge hints at 70% XRP price rally
XRP has been consolidating within a falling wedge pattern on the weekly chart โ a structure defined by downward-sloping, converging trendlines. In technical analysis, this pattern is generally viewed as a bullish reversal signal.
A confirmed breakout requires a clear move above the wedgeโs upper resistance near $2.52.
If XRP breaks this level, the patternโs measured move โ calculated from the wedgeโs maximum height โ suggests a potential rally toward $3.78 by June. This would represent an estimated 70% upside from the current prices.
Conversely, if XRP fails to break above the $2.52 resistance, the price could pull back toward the wedgeโs lower trendline. The patternโs apex near $1.81 may act as the final potential breakout point.
A breakout from the $1.81 level would still keep the patternโs structure intact, with a potential upside target around $3 by June or July โ roughly 35% above current levels.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
