Polymarket betters are pricing in a 77% chance that the US government will shut down again before the end of January, marking a 67% increase over the past 24 hours.
It comes as the CLARITY Act, a significant crypto bill aimed at providing more clarity around regulations, is still making its way through Congress, with previous delays largely blamed on the record 43-day US government shutdown in October and November.
Political commentator Collin Rugg highlighted the surging Polymarket odds in an X post on Saturday, noting that it came shortly after US Senator Chuck Schumer announced that Senate Democrats would not โprovide the votes to proceedโ to the appropriations bill if funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is included.
“What’s happening in Minnesota is appalling โand unacceptable in any American city,” Schumer said in a statement.
On Saturday morning, reports emerged that US federal agents shot and killed a 37-year-old man in Minneapolis.ย
Trump didnโt rule out shutdown in the future
Schumer said that the DHS bill is โwoefully inadequate to rein in the abuses of ICE. I will vote no.”
US President Donald Trump didnโt rule out the chances of another government shutdown at some point, telling Fox Business on Thursday: โI think we have a problem, because I think weโre probably going to end up in another Democrat shutdown.โ
It adds uncertainty around the CLARITY Actโs timeline, which has recently received a mixed response from the crypto industry after Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and other executives withdrew support.
โThis version would be materially worse than the current status quo. Weโd rather have no bill than a bad bill. Hopefully we can all get to a better draft,โ Armstrong said on Jan. 15.
CLARITY Act timeline remains unclear
Galaxy Digital head of research Alex Thorn echoed industry concerns in a report on Thursday that there is still uncertainty around stablecoin yields, which the US banking lobby argues would undermine the banking sectorโs competitiveness.ย
Related: US Bitcoin ETFs bleed $1.72B in five-day outflow streak
โThere arenโt yet any significant indications that the two sides have identified a compromise that can rejuvenate the billโs prospects,โ he said, adding that โthe additional 4-6 weeks until a second attempt at markup should give the parties more time to work on that.โ
Thorn said one of the โbig questionsโ is whether โthe gridlocked negotiations over stablecoin rewards can advance in the interim to raise the odds that such a markup is a bipartisan success.โ
Magazine: A โtsunamiโ of wealth is headed for crypto: Nansenโs Alex Svanevik
