With recession fears swelling again, investors seeking a safe place to put their assets should be interested in bitcoin , says Bernstein. The cryptocurrency, which has grown in popularity among institutions for its “digital gold” qualities, has an “enviable return record” versus physical gold, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani said in a note Monday. “Bitcoin’s hard money properties makes it an attractive ‘safe haven’ asset. Since its inception, bitcoin has consistently outperfomed gold,” he wrote. “Bitcoin’s inflation today at 1.8% is similar to Gold’s inflation, but what bitcoin skeptics miss is that every 4 years, bitcoin’s inflation halves, and bitcoin is still at a fairly early stage of institutional adoption i.e more inflows as supply become more scarce, leading to its exponential move.” Chhugani is referring to bitcoin’s halving event, which takes place every four years when the reward for mining bitcoin is cut in half, as designed in the Bitcoin code, to reduce the supply of the cryptocurrency. Historically, it has set the stage for new bull runs, and the next one is expected to come in May 2024. Bitcoin is up about 150% over the past three years – even with a 60% drawdown in 2022 – while gold has been flat, Chhugani noted. Going back five years, bitcoin has outperformed gold by 5x. On top of its outperformance, Bernstein notes that bitcoin is also in the early stages of institutional adoption, which will be helped by the approval of the first spot bitcoin ETF in the U.S. “The Bitcoin ETF would make bitcoin accessible in broker accounts [and] well integrated with private banks and wealth managers/advisors,” Chhugani said. “The early stages of bitcoin adoption, naturally, makes it more attractive [than] gold, with bitcoin market cap at less than 5% of Gold’s market value (of above ground reserves).” Bernstein’s comments come about a week after legendary hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones told CNBC bitcoin is looking more attractive as an investment with the economy “more likely than not” going into a recession. Jefferies also recently said bitcoin is a “critical hedge” against currency debasement and the return of inflation. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting.
The bitcoin safe haven trade is back on, says Bernstein
