US Dollar Surges as US Jobs Data Pressures Crypto

Key points:

  • Bitcoin falls with stocks and gold on stronger-than-expected US jobs data.

  • The US dollar index reaches its highest levels in three weeks as jobless claims come in below expectations.

  • $110,000 is an increasingly โ€œlikelyโ€ BTC price target next.

Bitcoin (BTC) looked โ€œlikelyโ€ to revisit $110,000 on Thursday as macro and geopolitical factors fueled BTC price weakness.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

US jobless claims pressure risk assets across the board

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirmed new local lows of $110,658 on Bitstamp.

US jobless claims data came in below expectations on the day โ€” a sign that labor market weakness may not be as acute as thought.ย 

This caused markets to become less confident about Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts, per data from CME Groupโ€™s FedWatch Tool.

Fed target rate probability comparison for October FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group

โ€œAnd just like that, initial jobless claims are no longer a worry,โ€ Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at capital market company Carson Group, wrote in part of a reaction on X.

US dollar strength surged as a result, with the US dollar index (DXY) hitting three-week highs while crypto, stocks and gold fell.

US dollar index (DXY) one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The mood was not helped by uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine conflict amid reports of Russian jet interceptions over Alaska.

Commenting on risk-asset behavior, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter called the stocks pullback โ€œoverdue.โ€

โ€œHealthy bull markets do not move in a straight line,โ€ it reasoned.

BTC/USD vs. Nasdaq 100 one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

As Cointelegraph reported, stocks and gold had previously been setting record highs.

$110,000 make-or-break for BTC price

On BTC price action, crypto market insight company Swissblock warned that the market โ€œsits in a delicate balance.โ€

Related: Biggest long liquidation of the year: 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

โ€œBitcoin lost $113K and hovers under $112K: a retest of $110K looks imminent,โ€ it warned X followers in part of a post.

Swissblock argued that BTC/USD needed to reclaim $115,200 to have a shot at revisiting the top of its range. Losing $110,000, on the other hand, would open up the path toward the $100,000 mark.

โ€œ$110K = max pain. Likely to be touched, leaving Fridayโ€™s options worthless,โ€ it added, referring to the upcoming $17.5 billion options expiry event.

BTC/USD chart. Source: Swissblock/X

Bullish crypto takes focused on topside exchange order-book liquidity. With markets heavily short, a โ€œsqueezeโ€ higher seemed all the more probable.

โ€œLook at the overwhelming short-side dominance in potential liquidations,โ€ trading resource TheKingfisher reiterated in part of commentary on proprietary data.ย 

โ€œ$AVAX short-side is 96.2% of the pending liqs. $ETH at 78.3%. $BTC at 69.4%. This is how liquidations build up. Smart money knows this is magnet for price.โ€

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.