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A fresh XRP/BTC chart released on 12 June by the market technician known as Dr. Cat has injected new controversy into one of cryptoโs most stubborn trading pairs. The analyst, posting to X, argues that despite a bruising six-week slide, conditions still favour an eventual breakout for XRP that would leave Bitcoin lagging. He assigns the scenario a formidable 70 percent probability.
XRP Vs. Bitcoin: 70% Chance Of Breakout, But When?
At the heart of Dr. Catโs thesis is the 2,041-satoshi level, where three separate Ichimoku timeframesโmonthly, bi-monthly and tri-monthlyโintersect. โThe price keeps eating support after support with no reaction from bulls at all as if supports donโt exist,โ he concedes, but he stresses that this specific shelf is โthe most important support.โ
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Candles on the attached one-month chart already hover fractionally below the line; a decisive monthly close beneath it, he warns, would flip the three-day structure fully bearish and scatter the pair into unpredictable, possibly chaotic ranges.
Even so, the strategist insists history is on the side of XRP bulls. โPrice has spent years performing very well and coiling up with higher lows for this attack now,โ he writes, framing the past twelve quarters as a prolonged accumulation that has never surrendered its series of macro higher lows.
That coiling, he believes, will allow XRP to mount at least a โminor โฆ attack in Augustโ toward the 3,000-satoshi regionโroughly a 45 percent appreciation from current levelsโand perhaps fuel a โmuch bigger attackโ once the broader market cycle matures.
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The optimism is not unqualified. Dr. Cat calculates a 30 percent chance of a complete flop if 2,041 sats fails on a monthly-close basis. Under that bearish branch, the cross could slice toward 1,800 โ 1,900 sats, attempt a feeble rebound, or continue a โslow bleed all the way down to the bottom of the range where it started the monster move.โ In such a setback, he would not expect the long-anticipated โmonster bullish moveโ until Q4 2025 at the earliest.
For the moment, therefore, the market hangs on a single number. Hold above 2,041 and Dr. Cat sees a clear shot at outperforming Bitcoinโfirst modestly, then dramatically.
Slip beneath it, and the road map dissolves into what he bluntly calls an โunpredictable/choppyโ expanse. Either way, XRP traders now know exactly where the cycleโs pivot resides and precisely how thin the margin for error has become.
At press time, XRP traded at $2.1287.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
