The Bitcoin “Bear Market Blues”
Just days ago, as reported by Ethereum World News, Arthur Hayes, the CEO of Hong Kong-headquartered BitMEX, told Yahoo Finance that the lack of volatility in Bitcoin (BTC) could continue into 2019 (and potentially 2020). The long-time crypto pundit went on to cite his trading experience as the catalyst behind this prediction, alluding to the theory that Bitcoin’s “nuclear bear market” in 2014 and 2015 may be replicated today.
Following Yahoo Finance’s report, Hayes and the researchers under him revealed further bearish sentiment, issuing an analysis of the crypto market in BitMEX’s most recent edition of “Crypto Trader Digest.”
Check out the new hotness. The latest Crypto Trader Digest just dropped. https://t.co/h2YrqcUafF
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) November 2, 2018
The report’s Bitcoin analysis segment, which was subtitled “Bear Market Blues,” first explained that “humans are very bad forecasters,” adding that 2017’s monumental run-up in Bitcoin price — which saw the digital asset move from $900 to just shy of $20,000 — will likely not be replicated until 2019 at the earliest.
Hayes then added that all markets, cryptocurrency included, will always undergo reversal phases, clearly accentuating his belief that BTC isn’t ready to bottom and move higher just yet. Citing BitMEX Research’s in-depth analysis of Bitcoin’s historical performance, the former J.P. Morgan associate noted that the cryptocurrency market’s current bear downtrend, which apparently began on March 12th of this year when Bitcoin’s spot price fell under its 200-day moving average, is likely to last into 2019 at the minimum.
Moreover, it was implied that cryptocurrencies could fall even lower, as BTC’s “peak-to-trough” (PTT) decline was pointed out to be only at 67%, compared to digital asset’s former PTT declines of 87% and 94%.
“Bitcoin Price Volatility Is A Gateway Drug”
Speaking on crypto’s volatility, which has become an incessantly talked about topic in today’s market, Hayes noted that the “choppiness” of Bitcoin’s sideways market will “eat traders alive.” Interestingly, speaking against popular sentiment, the prominent executive at BitMEX, the world’s foremost (in terms of volume) crypto mercantile exchange, explained that BTC “requires volatility” to regain its spot in the mainstream.
Backing this surprising claim, Hayes noted that Bitcoin price is the “best and most transparent way” to express the health, performance, and maturation of the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem, as it:
Advertises to the world that something is happening–whether that is positive or negative is irrelevant.
This isn’t an unbacked claim because, over the past few months, it has become no secret that mainstream financial media outlets, like CNBC, Bloomberg, and Forbes, have begun to scale back on their crypto-related coverage, albeit ever so slowly.
Of course, seeing that a majority of the public are active participants in the ‘going-ons’ of media outlets, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that Bitcoin’s falling value has correlated with a decline in MSM reports on the subject matter.
Hayes, seemingly referencing this unfortunate happenstance, wrote:
The Bitcoin price volatility is the gateway drug into the ecosystem. The media writes about things that move; therefore no movement, no coverage. The diehard traders and engineers will always hear about a new asset class or technology in advance of popular media outlet coverage. However, their efforts will only be amplified if many more people discover El Dorado. That requires the lazy mainstream financial press to write.
Keeping this in mind, the executive, who is a trader at heart, added that if crypto’s volatility continues to head lower, prices “will slowly leak lower” to a potential low of $2,000, which Hayes called “his new sweet spot.”
Analysis Images Courtesy of BitMEX Research — Title Image Courtesy of Andre Francois on Unsplash
