By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex.
- Tech analysis of the BTC
- The BTC may grow in price due to the US vs. Iran conflict
- In ten years, the profitability of the BTC has been many times higher than that of Gold and S&P 500.
On D1, speaking about the long-term moods of the cryptocurrency, there has been a pullback to 50.0% Fibo related to the previous declining wave after a convergence on the MACD. Also, the correctional dynamics have let the market test the resistance area at 50.0% ($8500.00) but even if a breakout had happened, the market would have changed the trend.
For now, we can note a downtrend developing inside the previous channel. A decline to the minimum and its test will be a trial for the market. A breakout of the minimum at $6430.00 will let the quotations decline to the mid-term level of 76.0% ($5700.00). But if a bounce follows, the market may go to a long correction phase.
Photo: Roboforex / TradingView
On H4, the BTC demonstrates the beginning of a decline after testing the mid-term resistance area as well as the resistance line of the short-term growth channel. A Gold Cross in the overbought area of the Stochastic may signal a decline to the support level and $7200.00.
Photo: Roboforex / TradingView
According to the head of Galaxy Digital Michael Novogratz, the BTC price may grow significantly in the circumstances of the escalating conflict between the US and Iran. The possibility of a full-scale conflict will provoke an unstable situation on stock exchanges, which will entail an increase in demand for alternative assets — gold and the BTC.
Theoretically, this sounds rational: earlier the Bitcoin price grew when the exchange investors massively escaped risks. However, after President Donald Trump addressed the nation, calming people down and reminding that the country remains strong and unconquerable, the need for safe assets may shrink.
In the last ten years, the profitability of the BTC turned out many times higher than that of Gold and S&P 500. According to Bloomberg research, the leading cryptocurrency has grown in price by 9.000.000% since July 2010. Since the same moment, the S&P 500 has grown by 200% and gold — by 25%.
Naturally, all three assets have their catalysts of growth and decline and react to the market situation differently. Gold is an investment for the patient, the exchange index responds to the speculative mood of the market and corporate events. The BTC is supported by the moods of people and its colossal volatility. But practice shows that increased risks may bring increased profit.
Disclaimer: Any predictions contained herein are based on the authors’ particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
Dmitriy Gurkovskiy is a senior analyst at RoboForex, an award-winning European online foreign exchange forex broker.
