The Bitcoin price movement over the last week has sent jitters among crypto investors. In the last seven days, the BTC price crashed to $6600 hitting its six-month low. But Bitcoin has bounced back quickly trying to consolidate above $7000 levels.
In the last 24 hours, the Bitcoin price is on a northward trajectory surging nearly 10% above $7500 level. At press time, Bitcoin is trading at $7551 with a market cap of $136 billion. This much-needed relief rally has recently got investors’ hope back.
However, experts say that it is too early to predict the shift in momentum. By observing the BTC chart, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital said that the BTC price has formed a “textbook inverse head & shoulders” pattern. This suggested that an upward movement was on the cards once the trough was complete.
Not sure you could actually draw a more perfect example of a textbook inverse head & shoulders formation… 🚀 https://t.co/VYwya8dinC
— Mark W. Yusko (@MarkYusko) November 27, 2019
We have seen an expected movement today with Bitcoin breaking above its crucial resistance of $7400. Bitcoin’s price movement seems to have a ripple effect on the entire crypto market with altcoins also gaining anywhere between 4-10%. In the last 24-hours, the overall cryptocurrency market cap has added $15 billion.
Traders Expecting a Long Crypto Winter Ahead
Recently, in the mainstream media, several reports are doing rounds of another crypto winter in the offing. While some investors have been betting on the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in May 2020, others predict a not so good outcome for BTC investors.
The latest report from Skew Analytics shows that Bitcoin futures traders are preparing for a long crypto winter. The BTC Futures market states that there are less than 40% chances that BTC price will trade any higher in 2020, than it is today.
The report adds that post the Bitcoin halving, the probability of new highs in BTC price is less than 4%.
Probability of new highs post halving = 4%
Traders still want to believe! pic.twitter.com/W9lmkV2wnd
— skew (@skewdotcom) November 27, 2019
To arrive at the probabilistic figures, Skew has calculated “the market-implied probabilities from the price of listed bitcoin options using the Black & Scholes formula”.
Skew also mentioned that is currently using market data from all listed Bitcoin options on Deribit which is currently “the most liquid Bitcoin options market”. According to Skew’s analysis, there is a 1 in 5 probability that Bitcoin will be trading above $10,000 by June 2020.
This clearly shows that the BTC futures market has a strong bearish outlook for Bitcoin.
Bhushan is a FinTech enthusiast and holds a good flair in understanding financial markets. His interest in economics and finance draw his attention towards the new emerging Blockchain Technology and Cryptocurrency markets. He is continuously in a learning process and keeps himself motivated by sharing his acquired knowledge. In free time he reads thriller fictions novels and sometimes explore his culinary skills.
