Bitcoin’s (BTC) price dropped to a new yearly low of $78,258 on Feb. 27, leading some analysts to suggest that the cryptocurrency is now in an optimal purchasing zone.
Bitcoin’s 60-day RCV hints at low-risk accumulation
Crazzyblock, a Bitcoin trader and verified analyst on CryptoQuant said that Bitcoin’s 60-day RCV reached its lowest level of -1.9 in the chart, signaling an ‘optimal DCA opportunity’ for the first time since July 2024.
Bitcoin 60-day RCV chart. Source: CryptoQuant
The 60-day realized value to market capitalization variance (RCV) is a metric that calculates the 60-day rolling average and standard deviation of BTC price. According to the metric, whenever the RCV value is below 0.30, it indicates a low-risk investment in the asset. A value between 0.30-0.50 implies a neutral environment, and above 0.5 means a high sell-off risk.
The analyst pointed out that the metric has been historically accurate in identifying undervaluation and overvaluation trends for BTC, and the current normalized RCV value presents a favorable buying opportunity based on “historical risk-reward dynamics.” The BTC proponent added,
“Long-term investors should consider scaling into BTC positions via a DCA strategy as risk-adjusted conditions remain optimal.”
In 2024, the RCV value flashed a DCA signal between May and July, where Bitcoin fluctuated between $70,000 and $50,000. Thus, it is essential to note that the RCV does not signal a bottom but highlights the low-risk, high probability of making gains in the long term.
Crypto analyst Yonsei Dent pointed out that Bitcoin’s short-term holder SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), which monitors realized profit or losses, had reached a sharp deviation below the lower Bolling Band.
Bitcoin SOPR range deviation data. Source: CryptoQuant
Based on such deviations, BTC has registered a short-term rebound between 8%-42%, with recoveries also evident during the 2022 bear market.
Data from Santiment suggests that BTC’s price has been correlated with the accumulation and distribution behavior of wallets holding 10+ BTC. Whenever these addresses accumulate, Bitcoin progressively increases in value.
Bitcoin whales and sharks accumulation chart by Santiment. Source: X.com
Santiment also highlighted that the “key stakeholders” have dumped roughly 6,813 BTC over the past week, its most extensive distribution since July 2024.
Similarly, Ki-Young Ju pointed out that Bitcoin’s spot ETF demand is weak, suggesting that a “price recovery could take some time.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
