Major U.S.-based crypto exchange Kraken has released a report predicting that Bitcoin (BTC) will rally by between 50% and 200% in the coming months.
The report notes that Bitcoin posted a 21-month low for volatility on July 24 of just 23%, and stated that BTC’s 12 historic volatility lows (of between 15% and 30%) have typically been followed by a rally of 140% on average.
With August usually the third-most volatile month for BTC price fluctuations, Kraken is predicting that upward momentum produced by Bitcoin at the end of July will continue for several months to come.
Late-July Bitcoin rally defies history
Kraken emphasized that Bitcoin’s recent rally resulted in the second-strongest July for BTC price performance since 2011 — noting that July was usually the third-weakest calendar month for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s 14.5% jump between July 27 to July 31 drove the month’s overall performance to a 24% gain, positioning the market for continued momentum, according to Kraken.
Prior to the move, July produced what the report describes as a “suppressed pocket” of weak volatility. Ten of the 12 past instances of Bitcoin entering a suppressed pocket have been followed by gains exceeding 196%.
Kraken estimates that 44% of July’s total trade volume transpired during the final seven days of the month.
BTC correlates with gold
The report also notes that Bitcoin’s rolling 30-day correlation with gold jumped to a one-year high of 0.93 on July 31.
The spike comes after the monthly correlation fell to a 10-month low of -0.66 on July 2 — contradicting predictions that gold and Bitcoin would emerge as popular ‘safe-haven’ assets and move in-step throughout the COVID-19 pandemic and recession.
