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The latest but not the least whose voice came out of Crypto Winter is Michael Novogratz of crypto merchant bank Galaxy Digital who kept telling it from his own view. Novogratz called the market bottom days after Fundstrat’s Thomas Lee issued his latest bullish outlook for the Bitcoin price.
Just for a reminder, few days ago Lee said that the “tailwinds” that had dragged bitcoin down during the current Crypto Winter are easing. Specifically, Lee said that “macro factors such as a rally in risk assets plus the US dollar no longer surging are tailwinds for BTC.”
He suggested that this means the bitcoin price would rise to $10,000 to $20,000 if BTC were to “catch up” to equities.
CRYTPO (2/2): natural question is how much implied upside #bitcoin to “catch up” to macro.
S&P 500+small-cap rally since 12/24 is >2 std dev.
1-std dev for $BTC is +185% gain. “Catching up” to equities implies $10k-$20k.
NOT OUR BASE CASE. Just highlighting macro tailwind. pic.twitter.com/p67FDNGmI3
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) March 17, 2019
Novogratz’s remarks were the actual response to Binance CEO Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, who posted a poll on Twitter asking followers whether we’re in a bull or bear market. Out of more than 32,000 votes so far, the needle is leaning toward a bear market. Novogratz disrupted the poll, pointing to a “sideways market” that has found a base and boldly predicting: “Next move higher.”
Looks pretty sideways to me. But basing. Next move higher.
— Michael Novogratz (@novogratz) March 18, 2019
However, Novogratz didn’t actually propose when that should happen and Fundstrat’s Lee appears to be focused on the next five to six month period.
BTC Trading Volume Surpassing $11 Billion
The experts have picked a good time to call a base, with the BTC price managing to hold $4.026,79 (at the time of writing) and posting gains of approximately 5% year-to-date. The thing to note about the recent price increase is trading volume, which surpassed $11 billion in recent days for the first time in nearly a year.
Last month, reflecting on the proliferation of crypto assets, many of which have attempted to vie with Bitcoin (BTC)’s function as a store of value, Novogratz said:
“There’s 118 elements on the periodic table, and only one gold. Bitcoin is going to be digital gold, a place where you have sovereign money, it’s not U.S. money, it’s not Chinese money, it’s sovereign. Sovereignty costs a lot, it should.”
Novogratz then also noted that critical infrastructure for institutional investors to become comfortable with crypto is gradually falling into place — albeit temporarily slowed by the recent United States government shutdown. He explained that forthcoming custodial solutions from New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) operator ICE’s Bakkt platform and investment giant Fidelity’s digital asset business indicate the institutional watershed is just getting started.
The prolonging crypto rout forced many crypto businesses out of the market. According to a recent interview, even Ledger SAS, the biggest producer of hardware wallets, is struggling. Eric Larchevêque, the CEO of the Paris-based startup, reveals that they have to resort to austere management to make sure that they will still be in business for ‘18 months more’.
In another one of his crypto-related tweets, which are somewhat scant in current conditions, the former Wall Street hotshot explained that there’s tons of institutional “activity under the hood,” adding that investors should “stay the course.” While Novogratz seems to be implying that lots of underlying developments aren’t public knowledge, there is a handful of recent news pieces that show that institutional players are here.
Realizing having tweeted about crypto in a while. It’s a grind. Don’t think we head north for at least a few more months. Always take longer for institutions to move. Very confident they will. Tons of activity under the hood. Stay the course.
— Michael Novogratz (@novogratz) February 1, 2019
And while traditional financial institutions like Fidelity are beginning to step into the crypto sphere, veteran industry firms such as crypto exchange and wallet service Coinbase have also introduced their own custody solutions for institutional clients.
Novogratz’s perspective is shared by established analysts such as Netherlands-based Big Four auditor KPMG, which last fall argued that institutionalization is “a necessary next step for crypto to create trust and scale.”
Big-Name Crypto Bulls
The Winklevoss brothers recently mentioned that crypto could eventually become bigger than Facebook (ironically, the social media giant is on the verge of launching its own stablecoin). They also claimed that Bitcoin, which is often called ‘digital gold’, is a better store of value than gold. The same opinion was expressed by Block.One founder Brendan Blumer, who believes that Bitcoin will ultimately replace gold by 2040.
On top of all that, Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey recently revealed that he buys $10,000 worth of BTC every week, using the dollar-cost averaging (DCA) investment strategy.
