Bitcoin and select altcoins are showing signs of bottoming out. Can they start a new uptrend? Let’s study the charts.
Grayscale director of sales and business development Rayhaneh Sharif-Askary said that institutional interest in the crypto space has been strong throughout this year. The second quarter inflow was $85 million with 80% coming from institutions. Though this is positive, it shows that the inflow is only a trickle and a fraction of the firepower the institutions hold.
A Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded fund (ETF) can also boost interest in the asset class. The United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will announce their decision on Bitwise Asset Management’s ETF proposal before the Oct. 13 deadline. Bitwise managing director and global head of research Matt Hougan is positive on the prospects of the proposal receiving a green light.
The volatility in Bitcoin is likely to rise following an announcement by the SEC. What are the key levels to watch out for? Let’s analyze the charts.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin has broken out of the down-sloping flag and the RSI has formed a positive divergence, which are bullish signs. The bulls are currently attempting to push the price above the 20-day EMA. If successful, a rally to the 50-day SMA and above it to the downtrend line of the symmetrical triangle is possible.
The leading cryptocurrency is likely to hit a wall at the downtrend line, from where it might enter a minor correction. If the next dip forms a higher low, it will confirm $7,700 as the new floor. Therefore, aggressive traders can retain the stops on the long positions at $7,700.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the BTC/USD pair reverses direction from current levels or from the 50-day SMA and plummets below the critical support zone of $7,702.87–$7,337.78. Such a move will hurt sentiment and will delay hopes of a strong recovery by the end of this year. However, we give it a low probability of occurring.
ETH/USD
Ether (ETH) has broken out of the moving averages. If the bulls can sustain the price above $185.566, a rally to $223.999 is possible. Above this, a retest of the critical resistance at $235.70 will be in the cards. Therefore, aggressive traders can retain the stops on the long position at $160.
Contrary to our assumption, if the bulls fail to sustain the price above $185.566, the ETH/USD pair will remain range-bound for a few more days. The pair will turn negative if it breaks below the $163.755–$151.829 support zone.
XRP/USD
XRP has risen above the overhead resistance of $0.27795 but the bulls are struggling to sustain above it. This shows hesitation at higher levels. Failure to keep the price above $0.27795 will attract selling that can drag the price back towards the moving averages.
The first sign of weakness will be a drop below the moving averages and the pair will start the downtrend below $0.22. However, if the bulls can propel and sustain the XRP/USD pair above $0.27795, a rally to $0.32668 and above it to $0.34229 is likely. Therefore, we suggest traders hold long positions with the stop loss at $0.215.
BCH/USD
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has broken above the overhead resistance of $236.08 and the bulls are currently attempting to push it above the 20-day EMA. If successful, a retest of the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern is possible. Therefore, we retain the buy recommendation given in the previous analysis.
Contrary to our assumption, if the BCH/USD pair turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will extend its stay inside the $203.36–$236.07 range for a few more days. The BCH/USD pair will turn negative on a break below $203.36.
LTC/USD
Litecoin (LTC) is facing some resistance at the 20-day EMA but we like that it has not given up ground, which shows that the buyers are confident of a further move up. A breakout of the 20-day EMA can push the price to the downtrend line, above which it will signal the end of the downtrend. We will wait for the price to break out and sustain above the downtrend line before suggesting a trade in it.
Contrary to our assumption, if the LTC/USD pair fails to scale above the overhead resistances, it can remain range-bound for a few more days. The downtrend will resume on a break below the recent lows of $50.
EOS/USD
EOS has risen above $3.1534 and is attempting to rise above the downtrend line, which is an important level to watch out for. If the bulls can push the price above the downtrend line, it will signal a likely change in trend. Therefore, traders can initiate long positions on a close (UTC time) above $3.50 with a stop loss of $2.40. The first target is a move to $4.8719 above which the cryptocurrency is likely to pick up momentum.
Contrary to our assumption, if the EOS/USD pair fails to scale and sustain above the downtrend line, it might again dip towards $2.80. A break below this level will retest the recent lows of $2.4001. If this level also cracks, a decline to the yearly low of $1.55 will be in the cards.
BNB/USD
Binance Coin (BNB) has broken out of the 20-day EMA, which is a sign that buyers are back in action. It can now move up to $18.30 and above it to the 50-day SMA, which has been a major hurdle in the past few months.
If the BNB/USD pair turns down from the 50-day SMA once again but makes a higher low, it will indicate that a bottom is in place. On the other hand, if the bulls can continue the pullback and push the price above the resistance line of the channel, it will signal an end of the downtrend. We will watch the price action for the next couple of days and then suggest a long position.
BSV/USD
Bitcoin SV (BSV) continues to trade inside the $78.506–$90.40 range. This shows a lack of interest among both bulls and bears. A breakout of $90.40 and the 20-day EMA will be the first sign that buyers are accumulating at these levels. The first target to watch on the upside is $107. We anticipate a stiff resistance close to this level as the 50-day SMA is placed just above it.
If the BSV/USD pair turns down and plummets below $78.506, it can retest the recent low of $66.666. A break below this level will be a huge negative as it will resume the downtrend and the next stop might be $50. We do not find any reliable buy setups at current levels, hence, we suggest traders remain on the sidelines.
XLM/USD
Stellar (XLM) rose above the 50-day SMA on Oct. 7 and 8, but it has not been able to sustain above it. However, a rise above the 50-day SMA triggered our buy recommendation given in an earlier analysis.
The bulls are again attempting to push the price above the 50-day SMA. If successful, a rally to $0.088708 is likely. Though it might face some resistance at the downtrend line, we expect it to be crossed. Therefore, traders can hold the long position with a stop loss of $0.051.
If the bulls fail to sustain the XLM/USD pair above the 50-day SMA it can again dip towards the recent lows of $0.051014. A breakdown of this low will resume the downtrend. However, we give this a low probability of occurring.
TRX/USD
There have been huge shifts with a number of cryptocurrencies vying for the number ten spot. This week, Tron (TRX) makes an entry into our analysis after a long gap. It has been trading inside a large range of $0.011240 and $0.0409111. The bulls defended the drop to the bottom of the range on Sept. 24. Since then, the cryptocurrency is in a pullback that has reached the stiff overhead resistance of $0.018660.
If the bulls can push the price above $0.018660, the TRX/USD pair might start its journey to $0.0409111. Therefore, traders can wait for the price to close (UTC time) above $0.018660 to buy with a stop loss of $0.0110. The first target is $0.030 where partial profits can be booked.
Contrary to our assumption, if the pair turns down from $0.018660, it might extend its consolidation for a few more days. It will turn negative on a break below $0.011240.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.
