BTC Well Overbought, Leg Lower Likely
Following Thursday’s slight pullback, the crypto market continued higher on Friday. As of the time of writing this, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $5,020, down $300 from this week’s peak. Still, Bloomberg claims that the cryptocurrency is still well overbought.
The outlet reports that according to the GTI Global Strength Indicator, a measure of market strength that is similar to the widely-used Relative Strength Index, is showing clear red flags. In fact, the signal is currently reading that Bitcoin is the most overbought on its daily chart since its rally in the quintuple-digit region, during 2017 and early-2018’s rally.
Previous cases of overbought levels in Global Strength preceded downturns in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. When the measure leaned overbought mid last year, when BTC traded at $8,500, the market collapse in the following weeks. Although past performance isn’t indicative of future action, it has become apparent that continual short-term gains cannot be sustained forever, even in the often irrational crypto asset space.
Mike McGlone, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst, added to the bearish sentiment with his positing that while Bitcoin clearly broke out, moving out of a “cage,” there will likely still be overarching selling pressure. He writes that with there being “such a massive bubble,” there may always be an “overhang of people” wanting to liquidate their Bitcoin stack, thereby setting the stage for a long-term slow downturn.
And this bearish streak continued, with David Tawil, the president of ProChain Capital, the president of a crypto-friendly fund, telling Bloomberg that his firm’s analysts expect for “another leg downward.” He adds that the 20% price spike, which brought BTC from $4,150 to $5,000 within a few days’ time, was actually somewhat detrimental, calling it a “not particularly comforting move.” Tawil explains that a “very, very quick run-up,” like what was just seen, isn’t as bullish as a gradual move upside, which establishes levels of support much more proficiently than a rapid uptick.
Bitcoin On-Chain Stats Signal Drop
This report comes as Bitcoin blockchain data has signaled that a potential pullback is likely, especially considering historical precedent. David Puell, the head of research at Murad Mahmudov’s cryptocurrency-focused hedge fund Adaptive Capital, recently unveiled an updated version of NVT Signal (NVTS), which relates network value and the 90-day moving average of daily transactional value to try and call Bitcoin bottoms and tops.
The indicator, which utilizes data from CoinMetrics, is currently trending higher (and has been since January), underscoring that the Bitcoin blockchain is showing signs of life, even following 2018’s dramatic downturn. But that isn’t the whole story. As Puell depicts, the current action in NVTS resembles that seen in early-2015, which was during a bear market recovery, but prior to Bitcoin’s final act of capitulation in that cycle.
Thus, if history repeats itself, the ongoing uptick in NVTS could be shut down by a dramatic BTC wick below $3,000. As Puell explained in the sub-tweets under his original message, the chart above “implies [that there will be] a pullback before transaction finally spikes, followed by a confirmed bull run.” The Adaptive Capital partner didn’t mention any explicit price forecasts, but considering historical precedent, the final bout of selling pressure could bring Bitcoin well under $3,000.
Photo by Mark Finn on Unsplash
