There is a noticeable buzz in the crypto community as the US presidential election draws near. Both Democratic and Republican candidates have expressed their intentions to pursue pro-crypto policies, sparking a surge in US political betting.
This is evident in Polymarket’s trading volumes breaking records and surpassing $380 million in July 2024 alone. Moreover, the platform’s monthly user count has grown to nearly 44,000 traders, up from roughly 4,000 in January.
That same summer, during a campaign event at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Vice President Kamala Harris vowed that if she were the US president-elect, she would “focus on cutting needless bureaucracy and unnecessary regulatory red tape” regarding cryptocurrencies. This rhetoric came against the backdrop of her opponent, Donald Trump’s longtime support for the crypto industry. It raised reasonable suspicion within the community, as many view Harris as the heir to the policies of the Biden administration, known for its strict attitude toward regulating crypto.
It became clear that digital finance would be one of the main areas of contention for both candidates. As things developed, everyone was anticipating the September 2024 debate between Trump and Harris. Before the event was announced, Trump declared that the United States would become the “crypto capital of the planet” if he were to return to the White House. Yet, either candidate’s lack of a definite stance on digital currencies during their discussion frustrated the crypto community.
It begs the question: are Harris and Trump merely after votes, or do they genuinely aim to incorporate cryptocurrency into people’s everyday lives? After all, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve survey, 18 million or 7% of adult Americans owned or used cryptocurrency in 2023. This percentage may not seem like it could impact the election results much, but given the very small gap between the candidates’ numbers, this figure could prove decisive.
Is Harris the successor to Biden’s harsh crypto policies?
The majority of Kamala Harris’ professional life has been devoted to prosecution. She began her career in 1990 as a deputy district attorney in Oakland, California, and held the office of California attorney general until 2017. Upon her election to the US Senate in January 2017, she made history as the first-ever female senator of color.
As she advanced in her political career, Harris took the oath of office and became Vice President of the United States in early 2021, soon after the 2020 presidential election when the Biden-Harris tandem rose to power.
The strongest turmoil around crypto regulation emerged in March 2022, when the White House released Joe Biden’s executive order on ensuring the responsible development of digital assets. Although the order didn’t specify how regulation should proceed, it highlighted concerns about consumer protection, criminal activity, global economic leadership, financial inclusion, and innovation.
However, Harris’ initial support for Biden’s growing regulatory scrutiny of cryptocurrencies isn’t the crypto community’s biggest concern. Harris is likely to appoint Gary Gensler, the current chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission, as Treasury Secretary. Once seen as progressive on digital assets, Gensler is now regarded as a staunch crypto critic.
Gensler’s views on crypto have shifted dramatically. In 2018, before taking the helm of the SEC, many in the crypto industry hailed him as forward-thinking. At the time, he was researching digital assets and teaching Blockchain and Money courses at MIT. Binance attorneys even claimed that Gensler offered to consult for the exchange, including setting up a meeting with former CEO Changpeng Zhao in Japan.
However, after Joe Biden appointed him to lead the SEC in 2021, Gensler’s public stance shifted toward regulation. He described the crypto market as a “Wild West” rife with scams.
“I believe we have a crypto market now where many tokens may be unregistered securities.”
Gary Gensler’s most high-profile crypto-related case was the indictment of Sam Bankman-Fried, the so-called “King of Crypto,” who received a 25-year sentence in 2022 for embezzling billions from FTX users. This case cemented Gensler’s transition from just a crypto skeptic to an outright opponent.
Later on, in 2023, the SEC filed 13 charges against Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao, despite Gensler’s previous offer to consult for them. That same year, the SEC took another legal action against Coinbase. These two lawsuits resulted in tokens like Solana, Polygon, and Cardano being labeled “unregistered securities” and suffering significant losses.
Overall, Gensler’s latest actions directly contradicted his earlier public positions. In January 2024, he warned potential investors that cryptocurrencies “continued to be subject to significant risk” and suggested that many crypto asset services might not comply with federal securities laws.
So, it seems like such an anti-crypto mindset complicates Harris’ promise to simplify cryptocurrency regulations. Adding to the skepticism, Harris has strong support from major Democratic elites, such as the Obamas and the Clintons, whose views on crypto are also far from favorable.
Back in 2016, Barack Obama remained silent on encryption and digital assets during his presidency despite portraying himself as tech-savvy. His reluctance to implement these technologies for the protection of civil rights and liberties disappointed over 100,000 petitioners who had hoped he would champion the cause. Meanwhile, in 2021, Hillary Clinton stated that cryptocurrencies could undermine entire nations and threaten the US dollar’s status as the global reserve currency.
Other figures aligned with Harris share similar views. Xavier Becerra, Secretary of Health and Human Services and former California attorney general, warned against digital asset scams in 2020. Jennifer Granholm, US Secretary of Energy, who supports Harris, initiated an investigation into the energy usage of a Texas crypto miner, leading to a lawsuit alleging government overreach.
And now that Joe Biden has withdrawn from the 2024 presidential race, likely with the influence of pro-Democratic elites, the crypto community questions whether Harris will be able to make meaningful changes in a landscape where the key decision makers remain opposed to mass adoption.
Harris’ opponent, on the other hand, presents brighter prospects for the crypto world. Donald Trump first began his political career when he publicly expressed his desire to run for president back in the 1980s, but the press treated these statements as publicity stunts. In 1999, he switched his voter registration from the Republican Party to the Reform Party and formed a presidential exploratory committee. He did not run in 2000 but later rejoined the Republican Party and maintained a high public profile during the 2012 election.
It was later in 2015 when Trump announced his candidacy for the 2016 election under the slogan “Make America Great Again.” The presidential race between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton was very heated, full of scandals and loud accusations.
Ultimately, on November 8, 2016, when the votes were counted, Trump shocked everyone by garnering a higher number of votes in crucial Rust Belt states. Having successfully capitalized on the economic anxieties and racial prejudices of some working-class whites, his inauguration took place on January 20, 2017.
But the former president hasn’t always spoken favorably of cryptocurrency. He claimed in a 2019 tweet that cryptocurrency is “highly volatile and based on thin air.” The last time similar rhetoric was used was in 2021 when Trump told Fox Business that Bitcoin is a “scam” that jeopardizes the US dollar’s importance.
That all changed after the SEC began enforcing harsh policies on the major cryptocurrency exchanges and the industry as a whole. Following this, Trump and the Republican Party started criticizing the Democrats and their regulatory attempts under President Joe Biden, dubbing the situation a “war on crypto.” This was one way Trump scored political points, but it wasn’t the only reason for his shift in tone. Beyond politics, he personally witnessed the economic benefits of cryptocurrencies.
In early 2022, Trump sold his own branded non-fungible tokens worth millions of dollars and began accepting crypto donations for his campaign, raising $3 million in July 2024. Meanwhile, investors have been purchasing fan-created crypto meme coins, such as the MAGA token (TRUMP), as a show of support for his campaign. Notably, Trump was gifted an enormous collection of this token, currently valued at over $4 million. These revelations influenced his stance, and during a speech at one of the biggest crypto events, Bitcoin 2024, Trump acknowledged the challenges facing the community and pledged to fire Gary Gensler on his first day back in the White House. He also said that if he wins, “Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’ anti-crypto crusade will be over.”
Despite his previous statements, Trump has gained strong support from the crypto community and tech leaders. For example, he has won endorsements from industry heavyweights like the Winklevoss twins and Elon Musk. But they’re not the only Trump supporters who are backing cryptocurrencies. Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, who Trump nominated as his Vice President, has attracted a lot of buzz among the crypto community as well.
Vance revealed in his most recent federal financial disclosure that he owns between $100,000 and $250,000 worth of Bitcoin. He is also known for his connections to prominent Silicon Valley billionaires, many of whom support his VP nomination. Prominent businessmen such as Panatir co-founder Joe Lonsdale and Doug Leone of VC Sequoia Capital, among others, have already raised more than $8 million to support the Trump-Vance ticket, according to a recent Federal Election Commission filing.
Special mention should be made of Robert Kennedy Jr., who, as an independent candidate, recently dropped out of the current election race and urged his supporters to vote for Trump. Kennedy Jr. also declared his complete dedication to Bitcoin during the Bitcoin 2024 conference and revealed that the majority of his wealth is in digital assets.
On this, Trump isn’t backing down from his pro-crypto stance. In September 2024, he announced the launch of his own crypto platform, World Liberty Financial, to be operated by his sons, Eric and Donald Trump Jr. The platform is expected to function similarly to others like Coinbase, Gemini, and Binance, charging users fees for trading cryptocurrencies. In the future, it may also introduce WLFI, the platform’s own token.
Overall, Trump is clearly benefiting from these actions, actively swaying the pro-crypto electorate in his favor. Analysts at Bernstein predict that if Trump wins, the price of Bitcoin could reach $90,000 by the end of 2024. In contrast, the same analysis projects that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could drop to as low as $30,000 if Harris prevails.
What to expect if Kamala Harris wins?
As for Kamala Harris, all her public statements on cryptocurrency regulation lack detail. On the one hand, Harris might use pro-crypto rhetoric to politically distinguish herself from Biden and present herself as an independent leader. On the other hand, her strong connections to anti-crypto politicians and elites could pose a significant obstacle to implementing her claimed intentions. As a result, her promises have no solid foundation, as evidenced by their vague wording. For this reason, her hints about loosening crypto regulations seem unconvincing.
Overall, the US government’s current stance on crypto is gradually becoming more lenient, but these are minor adjustments that do not significantly impact the bigger picture. Under a Harris presidency, any changes would likely proceed just as slowly and reluctantly, though they will occur nonetheless, as cryptocurrencies are definitely here to stay.
What to expect if Donald Trump wins?
Regarding Donald Trump, it’s interesting to note how he brings up the subject of crypto in his statements to set himself apart from the current administration. It is quite obviously one of his strategies to win over particular voters to his cause. However, his support for the crypto community extends beyond petty political maneuvers. After personally witnessing the potential profitability of cryptocurrencies, the former president’s skepticism has dissipated.
Trump is known for his flighty nature and ability to make quick decisions, which sets him apart from conservative candidates on this issue. Given his impulsive nature, it stands to reason that if he were elected president, he might take a more visible step toward crypto regulation. If he prevails, that is at least more likely to happen.
Conclusion
The competition between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in the 2024 US presidential election underscores their contrasting approaches to cryptocurrency regulation. Harris, despite pledging to reduce regulatory hurdles, is seen as a continuation of the Biden administration’s stringent crypto policies, which have generally fostered skepticism within the crypto community.
On the other hand, Trump’s evolving stance on cryptocurrency, marked by public endorsements and proactive measures to support the industry, has garnered significant backing from the crypto-friendly electorate. Financial analysts at Goldman Sachs and Jeffries support Bernstein’s forecast that Bitcoin could increase in value to between $90,000 and $100,000 if Trump is elected.
Notably, some experts are optimistic about Bitcoin’s growth regardless of the election outcome. For example, FBS analytics predict that the price of Bitcoin will rise to $100,000 by 2025 if all current trends in crypto adoption continue. In a chart, they showed how BTCUSD has formed a cup-and-handle pattern, which is a classic bullish pattern.
If the price breaks the upper trend line above the $67,000 resistance level, the $90,000 mark, corresponding to the 138.2 Fibonacci line, will be the nearest target. And if resistance at $90,000 is broken, Bitcoin could reach $102,000.
Such predictions give the entire crypto community reasonable hope that mass crypto adoption is just a matter of time.
